[The Editors' Verdict] How to Interpret the 21st General Election

Sangbyung Park (Political Commentator)

In a few days, the results of the 21st general election will be announced. This election carries a strong character of a 'midterm evaluation' of the Moon Jae-in administration following the 'impeachment of Park Geun-hye.' Especially, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a black hole swallowing up various issues, making the state of emergency itself a core agenda for evaluating the Moon administration.

Amid this situation, early voting took place last weekend. Due to voters trying to avoid election day amid the COVID-19 variable, it was expected that early voting turnout would be somewhat high, but no one anticipated it reaching as high as 26.69%. It remains unclear whether the early voting turnout will boost the overall election turnout as in previous years or cannibalize the main election turnout. If it leads to a high turnout, this general election will inevitably become a matter of intense interest. Beyond the election results themselves, the strength of Korean democracy demonstrated in this process could attract global attention.

So, how can the results of the 21st general election be interpreted in a rational way? There is no need to be swayed by the strategic forecasts or intentional framing wars from both ruling and opposition parties, which can be regarded as mere 'tricks of the trade.' The important factor is not the political parties but the voters, the people. Let us highlight a few points about the 21st general election results that can be read from the people's perspective.

First, whether the Democratic Party of Korea, including the Together Citizens' Party, secures a majority of seats is very important. If the result is a 'landslide victory for the Democratic Party,' it can be seen that the 'power of the candlelight protests' is still alive. This would mean that the Moon administration will maintain control over governance in its second half and have a much stronger position in the next presidential election. Conversely, if the Democratic Party fails to secure a majority, it means that the resistance from the United Future Party was formidable. Therefore, it is highly likely that the United Future Party will reorganize and launch an 'anti-Moon (anti-Moon Jae-in) all-out struggle' leading up to the next presidential election.

Second, the number of seats won by proportional representation parties should also be closely observed. For the first time in constitutional history, a 'mixed-member proportional representation system' was adopted to prevent the dominance of the two major parties, but the original intent of electoral reform was trampled upon when 'trick proportional parties' were created by the major parties. How will voters evaluate this situation? The key question is whether voters will side with the major parties or wield a whip against them. Whether these tricks and loopholes succeed or fail is also an important indicator for reading current political realities.

Third, the flow of 'third zone politics' established in the 20th general election is another important issue not to be overlooked. Political disappearance caused by the 'hostile symbiotic relationship' between the two major parties has already reached a critical point. Although third zone politics briefly attracted public attention, it has effectively collapsed due to internal lack of capacity. The Minsaeng Party barely has any presence, and the People’s Party is nothing more than a divisive force within third zone politics. Nonetheless, it is worth watching whether they can barely survive in this election or face complete collapse. The performance of the Justice Party is also not unrelated to this.

Finally, one more point to note is the overall voter turnout. If the high early voting turnout raises the main election turnout to an all-time high, it likely means that 'punishment votes' will concentrate on one side. This is because the election is taking place at a time when the 'judgment on the Moon Jae-in administration' and the 'judgment on Hwang Kyo-ahn’s United Future Party' are clashing. Moreover, there is a strong element of judgment on the 20th National Assembly, which was considered the worst parliament. Therefore, if a high turnout punishes one side, it could become a decisive driving force for political landscape changes after the election. Of course, discussions on constitutional amendments and electoral reforms could also gain momentum again. Our people have always risen before the wind when the country faced a crisis. Will they do so again this time?

Park Sang-byeong, Political Commentator

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.