High Early Voting Turnout: Will It Lead to Main Voting?... Each Party's Calculations Are Also Complex

On the first day of early voting for the 21st National Assembly election on the 10th, citizens wearing plastic gloves are casting their precious votes at the Namyeong-dong early voting station set up at Seoul Station. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] The early voting rate for the 21st general election has reached an all-time high, complicating the calculations of each political party ahead of the main vote. With predictions that the overall turnout will also increase, political circles are divided over who will benefit from this atmosphere.

According to the National Election Commission on the 13th, the early voting rate for the 21st general election, conducted over two days from the 10th to the 11th, was finally tallied at 26.69% (11.74 million people). This is the highest since early voting was first introduced in the 2014 local elections. The previous highest early voting rate was 26.06% during the 19th presidential election. The dispersal of voters due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the establishment of the early voting system appear to have had a significant impact.

Each party interprets this early voting rate differently. The ruling party, the Democratic Party of Korea, commented on the early voting rate, saying, "The wise judgment of the people regarding the government's efforts to prevent and overcome the spread of COVID-19, and the anger and disappointment toward the Future United Party, which has been filled with reckless remarks even in this serious situation, have manifested in the high early voting rate." On the other hand, Kim Jong-in, the Future United Party's general election committee chairman, evaluated, "In the metropolitan area, historically, a high early voting rate has favored the opposition party based on past experience, so the high early voting rate is relatively encouraging."

If the trend of the early voting rate continues, there is an expectation that the overall turnout, which has hovered in the mid-to-high 50% range, could exceed 60% this time. Among all, the Future United Party is the most tense amid these expectations. This is due to the conventional wisdom that higher turnout favors progressive parties, while lower turnout benefits conservative parties.

In fact, in the 19th general election, which recorded a turnout of 54.2%, the Saenuri Party (now the Future United Party) achieved a landslide victory, and in the 18th general election with a turnout of 46.1%, the predecessor of the Future United Party, the Grand National Party, also won by securing a majority. Conversely, in the 17th and 20th general elections, which recorded higher turnouts of 60.6% and 58% respectively, progressive parties secured the position of the largest party in the National Assembly.

Elections won by progressive parties share the commonality of high voter turnout among young people in their 20s to 40s. In this election as well, young voters are expected to participate at levels comparable to previous elections. According to a voter survey conducted by the National Election Commission, 72.7% responded that they "definitely will vote." By age group, the responses were ▲18-29 years old 52.8% ▲30s 71.3% ▲40s 77.0% ▲50s 73.8% ▲60s 83.8% ▲70 and older 82.5%. Compared to the same survey during the last general election, the intention to vote among young people in their 20s to 40s appears high. This is a point that conservative parties such as the Future United Party cannot help but be concerned about.

Experts also focus on age-specific turnout as a key indicator that will decide the outcome of this general election. Hong Hyung-sik, director of Hangil Research, said, "Looking at past election results, the formula 'older generation is conservative, younger generation is progressive' has never been broken. Although there were signs of disaffection with the current government among those in their 20s and 30s, that was only partial, and they do not consider the Future United Party as an alternative," adding, "Ultimately, the mobilization power of each party by generation will be the key to winning or losing the general election."

There is also a view that a higher overall turnout will not necessarily be entirely advantageous to the ruling party. Park Sang-byeong, a visiting professor at Inha University Graduate School of Policy, said, "Although it would be common sense for turnout to be low due to COVID-19, the early voting rate was high, which means there could be many 'punishment votes' against a particular party," adding, "In the confrontation and conflict between the two major parties, whether the punishment votes will be directed at President Moon Jae-in or at Representative Hwang Kyo-ahn remains to be seen."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.