'Again 2004?' Focus on Democratic Party Majority... Also Leading in Key PK Region

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] 'Again 2004?'

The focus of the 21st general election is converging on whether the Democratic Party of Korea will secure a majority of seats. The key battleground is the conservative-leaning Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK) region, where as the voting day approaches, various polls show the Democratic Party either neck-and-neck with or even ahead of the United Future Party. If realized, it would be the first time in 16 years since the Uri Party secured a majority with 152 seats amid the backlash from the impeachment of President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004, and also the first time in 8 years that the ruling party holds a majority in the National Assembly.

Positive evaluations of the government's response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have translated into rising approval ratings, and the United Future Party appears to be suffering from a backlash due to its repeated controversial remarks.

Looking at the poll results released just before the publication ban on the 9th, in the PK region, the Democratic Party showed support ranging from 36% to 48%, while the United Future Party had 25% to 34%.

In some cases, the Democratic Party leads by as much as 15 percentage points. According to a Korean Gallup survey conducted on the 7th and 8th, the Democratic Party had 40% support, and the United Future Party 15%. Similarly, a Realmeter poll commissioned by Newsis during the same period showed the Democratic Party at 48.6% and the United Future Party at 34.3%.

During the same period, a Korean Research survey commissioned by Hankook Ilbo showed constituency candidate support at 33.3% for the Democratic Party and 33.4% for the United Future Party, while a Korea Research survey commissioned by MBC showed 35.9% for the Democratic Party and 34.3% for the United Future Party. Among recent polls, only the Research View survey conducted on the 8th showed the United Future Party ahead with 47% compared to the Democratic Party's 35%.

The PK region has shown consistently conservative voting patterns since the 1990 three-party merger led by former President Kim Young-sam, but four years ago in the 20th general election, the Democratic Party caused a stir by securing 8 seats, including 5 in Busan and 3 in Gyeongnam. This was a decisive factor that allowed the Democratic Party to become the largest party by a margin of one seat.

Two years ago in the local elections, the aftermath of former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment continued, and the Democratic Party swept most major local government heads. Ahead of this year's general election, there was analysis suggesting a return to stronger conservative tendencies, but as the voting day approaches, support for the Democratic Party has expanded. In fact, when Korean Gallup surveyed from the 3rd to the 5th of last month, the Democratic Party had 27% and the United Future Party 30%, but within just one month, the Democratic Party turned to a 15 percentage point lead.

The Democratic Party projects securing '130 seats + α (alpha)' out of 253 constituency seats, while the United Future Party expects '110 + α seats.' Initially, the Democratic Party aimed to 'maintain the status quo' in the PK region, but recently they expect to gain up to about 10 seats. There is speculation that additional seats could be won in Busan Sasang (Democratic Party's Bae Jae-jung vs. United Future Party's Jang Je-won). However, the results in closely contested areas such as Gyeongnam Yangsan-eul (Kim Doo-kwan vs. Na Dong-yeon), Busanjin-gap (Kim Young-chun vs. Seo Byung-soo), and Busan Nam-eul (Park Jae-ho vs. Lee Eon-ju) could have a significant impact not only on the PK region but also on the nationwide political landscape.

Democratic Party leader Lee Hae-chan said at a support rally in the Chungnam region the day before, "We have done our utmost in the election campaign and secured the largest party status. The first stage goal has been achieved. The second stage goal is to become a majority party with more than half the seats."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.