COVID-19, Circling Around... Heading to the Southern Hemisphere After Summer

15 Countries with Over 10,000 Cases
Many Undetected Patients Likely in India and Southeast Asia
At Least One Month of Continuous Cases in Any Country
South Korea Passed the 'Patient 31' Crisis
But Daily Cases Remain Around 100 Due to Clusters and Imported Cases

[Asia Economy Reporters Choi Daeyeol, Kim Heungsun, Jo Hyun-ui] In the United States, which has the highest number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) worldwide, there were fewer than 100 confirmed cases as of March 3 (local time) last month. Within a week, on March 10, the number surpassed 1,000, and another week later, on March 17, the number of confirmed cases exceeded 10,000. About ten days later, on March 26, the number exceeded 100,000, and as of April 3 (Korean time), it has surpassed 240,000. In the past week, more than 20,000 new cases have been confirmed daily, indicating a steep spread.

Outbreak in the Northern Hemisphere Until Summer... Likely to Spread to the Southern Hemisphere

Although the situation in the United States appears severe on the surface, the real issue is not the U.S. There are likely many undetected infected patients in India and Southeast Asia as well. Professor Kim Woo-joo of Korea University Guro Hospital's Department of Infectious Diseases said, "The U.S. quickly identified patients by mass supplying diagnostic kits," adding, "It is difficult to assume that countries with officially low numbers of patients actually have few cases."

He continued, "(COVID-19) is the novel infectious disease with the highest number of patients and deaths in the past 30 years," and said, "It started in Asia and spread to Europe and North America, and the outbreak is expected to continue until this summer and then steadily move to the Southern Hemisphere."

Since the first patient was reported in China at the end of December last year, about 100 days have passed, and the total number of COVID-19 patients worldwide has exceeded 1 million, making it a true pandemic. As of March 12, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the pandemic, about 80,000 patients in China, the initial outbreak site, accounted for 70% of global cases, but now the proportion of patients in China is less than 10%. Following the U.S., Italy and Spain have each surpassed 100,000 cases, and including South Korea, the total number of countries with over 10,000 cumulative cases has increased to 15 as of this day.

On the 2nd (local time), a message urging 'social distancing' to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was hung on a park railing in New Jersey, New York State, with the Manhattan skyline in the background. Bill de Blasio, the Mayor of New York, recommended that citizens wear face coverings when going out that day.

Patients Continue for a Month Even with Strict Measures

Looking at the pattern of patient occurrence in countries where cases surged rapidly in the early stages, such as China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy, the outbreak tends to last at least a month even with a short-term view. Although the virus's characteristics have not yet been fully identified and there are regional differences, experts have concluded that the virus's high transmissibility and significant number of asymptomatic infections make it difficult to control with typical quarantine measures.

Even in Wuhan, China, which was locked down entirely, and Italy, which imposed nationwide movement restrictions, patients continued to appear steadily for about 2 to 3 weeks after the measures. Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York State, which has the highest number of patients in a single region in the U.S., said on a broadcast the day before, "The peak of COVID-19 cases will be reached by the end of April." Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a White House briefing on March 31, "There is a high possibility that COVID-19 will reoccur this fall," adding, "It will appear again like a seasonal disease."

On the 3rd, officials are inspecting the facility at the COVID-19 screening clinic exclusively for overseas arrivals, set up in the West Gate 1 parking lot of Jamsil Sports Complex, Songpa-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Passed the 'Patient 31' Crisis but Still on Thin Ice

In South Korea, where the first patient was reported on January 20, the situation changed about a month later on February 18 with the discovery of 'Patient 31.' This patient, the first confirmed case in Daegu and a member of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, led to 5,175 related cases linked to Shincheonji, accounting for more than half of the total domestic cases. Subsequently, cluster infections in nursing facilities centered around Daegu and Gyeongbuk, such as Cheongdo Daenam Hospital, Hansarang Nursing Hospital, and Daesil Nursing Hospital, continued.

Although the government declared the area a disaster zone and implemented strong quarantine measures, the increase in cases has slowed but new cases continue steadily at around 100 per day. In the Seoul metropolitan area, cluster infections have occurred consecutively, including the Guro call center in Seoul, Grace River Church in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, and Bundang Jesaeng Hospital, and cases continue steadily due to imported infections from overseas.

The newly confirmed domestic cases on this day were 86, bringing the total cumulative cases to 10,062. The number of cases classified as imported infections reached 647, increasing by 46 from the previous day, showing a steady proportion of imported cases.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.