[Opinion] The Direction of Korea-China Relations Viewed from Three Perspectives

The novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has infected 1,002,159 people worldwide, including South Korea (as of the announcement by Johns Hopkins University in the U.S. on the 2nd), and has caused the deaths of over 50,000 people, plunging the world into a vortex of fear and anxiety with no end in sight. In China, the epicenter Wuhan and Hubei Province now report almost no new confirmed cases and are focusing all efforts on preventing re-importation of the virus. However, seeing the number of confirmed cases still rising in third-world countries including South Korea evokes mixed feelings. In particular, there is concern that the widespread distrust and hatred toward China within South Korea may further freeze Korea-China relations. What changes might occur in Korea-China relations post-COVID-19? Looking at it from three major perspectives, it is highly likely that this year will not be smooth for Korea-China relations.

First, Korea-China relations may enter a new phase due to issues between the U.S. and China. The situation in the U.S. is serious, with stock prices plummeting and controls on people’s movements. After the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. exceeded 10,000, on the 19th, President Trump used the term "Chinese Virus" instead of the previously used "Corona Virus" during a COVID-19 press conference. In response, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned on Twitter the possibility that the U.S. military might have brought COVID-19 to Wuhan. Following the U.S.-China trade war, a tense diplomatic confrontation between the two countries has begun again. The problem is that this sharp U.S.-China tension is not someone else’s issue. As always, conflicts between the G2 countries, the U.S. and China, are directly reflected in South Korea, resulting in direct and indirect pressure and damage to the real economy. Even if COVID-19 ends soon, friction between the U.S. and China will continue based on the origin of the virus, and both countries will enter a phase of "making allies within South Korea" through various diplomatic channels. If mishandled, the COVID-19 issue could become the trigger for a second round of deterioration in the U.S.-China trade war, dragging South Korea into the vortex.

Second, the possibility of President Xi Jinping’s visit to South Korea in the first half of the year and the resulting changes in Korea-China relations are also points of interest. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced early last month that President Xi’s visit to South Korea in the first half of this year would proceed as planned, but the situation in China needs to be monitored further. First, the Two Sessions (Lianghui), scheduled for early March, have been indefinitely postponed due to COVID-19. Currently, there are rumors that the Two Sessions might be held at the end of April or early May, but this is only possible if re-importation of the virus is prevented and no secondary outbreak occurs. In China, the Two Sessions, the country’s largest political event, are prioritized, and only after that are delayed external diplomatic schedules handled, which is the usual practice. Therefore, it is highly likely that President Xi’s visit to South Korea within the first half of the year will be difficult. So, what is the best-case scenario? If the COVID-19 crisis ends worldwide within the first half of the year, there is a possibility that President Xi will visit South Korea around August 24, the 28th anniversary of Korea-China diplomatic relations. President Xi’s visit could be a new starting point for Korea-China relations, and various Korea-China events that could not be held in the first half of the year might be triggered to coincide with his visit.

Third, the "China phobia" phenomenon caused by COVID-19 and its impact on future Korea-China relations. Due to this crisis, anti-China sentiment within South Korea is spreading to various social strata. The China phobia, which started from avoidance of Chinese people due to COVID-19, is likely to expand and re-spread comprehensively to Chinese food, culture, economy, and political diplomacy. Ultimately, this China phobia phenomenon will not only affect our economy but also become another spark for division in Korean public opinion. The post-COVID-19 period is a time for both countries to focus on important and necessary strategic planning and could be an opportunity for a leap forward in Korea-China relations. Amid the current pain and difficult journey, we need to consider a wiser approach together to respond to the changes that post-COVID-19 will bring.

Park Seungchan, Professor of Chinese Studies at Yongin University / (Corporation) China Management Research Institute

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.