When to Lift the 'COVID-19 Lockdown'... The World Begins to Ponder

Trump's "Normalization Before Easter" Remark Sparks Controversy
Intense Debate Between Economic and Health Experts

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] As countries worldwide continue to extend movement restrictions and lockdown measures to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), the world is struggling over when to lift these measures. The argument that the economic damage, which is inversely proportional to active quarantine measures, can no longer be ignored is gradually gaining traction.

In particular, since U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked discussions by expressing his desire to effectively lift lockdown measures by Easter (April 12), intense debates are expected to take place mainly among economists and public health experts for the time being.

On the 25th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, "In the coming weeks and months, governments around the world will face the difficult dilemma of when to lift lockdown measures, whether there is a risk of COVID-19 resurgence, and how much economic damage can be tolerated."

The dilemma is inevitable because COVID-19, which originated in China last December, has gradually spread to Asia, the United States, Europe, and other regions, continuing for more than three months and delivering a severe blow to the economy. It has become impossible to ignore the economic damage such as reduced household and corporate income, job losses, increased risk of corporate bankruptcies, and stock market crashes.

The controversy was ignited by President Trump. Since the 22nd, through daily tweets and press conferences, he has indicated the possibility of lifting 'social distancing' measures, stating, "We will not allow the situation to worsen due to the cure for the problem (COVID-19)." He also emphasized that there could be other consequences, such as people taking their own lives due to economic hardship rather than the virus itself.

In fact, the longer the lockdown lasts, the greater the economic impact due to halted production and consumption. According to Oxford Economics, if the current lockdown measures continue for three weeks, 50-90% of consumers are expected to reduce their consumption by 5-8% over the next three months. If the lockdown extends to six weeks, the consumption decline doubles to 9-16%, and if movement restrictions last for three months, consumption could decrease by up to 32%.

The problem is that it is difficult to lift lockdown measures immediately. The spread of COVID-19 is not being contained in the United States and Europe. According to Johns Hopkins University statistics, as of 8:30 a.m. on that day, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide exceeded 460,000, with deaths surpassing 20,000. In the U.S., confirmed cases increased by more than 10,000 per day, exceeding 60,000 on that day, and Spain saw 443 new deaths in a single day, bringing its total death toll higher than China's (3,281).

Patients continue to surge in Europe, including Italy and the United Kingdom, as well as in Latin America and Africa. For this reason, public health experts and medical staff strongly advise that movement restrictions remain necessary. Within the Trump administration's COVID-19 task force (TF), health experts are also negative about lifting social distancing measures. Additionally, there are ongoing ethical concerns about ignoring the increasing death toll to reduce costs.

There is also a forecast that if lockdown measures are lifted prematurely, the COVID-19 crisis could resurge, causing even greater economic repercussions. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN, "Reopening businesses by Easter will cause chaos," adding, "That would be prescribing a recession." He further stated, "If people flood hospitals excessively or family members die, causing panic, the economy could worsen more than if lockdown measures were maintained." Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said, "Resuming economic activities before the virus is eradicated could lead to second and third waves that force another shutdown."

In this situation, China's actions are expected to serve as a gauge for normalization. Starting from the 25th, China plans to lift lockdown measures beginning with Hubei Province, and by the 8th of next month, the lockdown on Wuhan, the epicenter, will be lifted. However, since it is not a full-scale reopening due to concerns about COVID-19 resurgence, attention is focused on how much time it will take for the economy to return to normal.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.