[Planning] North Korea, Re-targeting the Korean Peninsula with Weapon Development

The 240mm multiple rocket launcher deployed in the joint land, sea, and air exercises of the North Korean People's Army has a maximum range of 60km, capable of striking the Seoul metropolitan area, including Seoul, near the Demilitarized Zone in case of emergency.

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] As the 10th anniversary of the Cheonan ship sinking incident approaches, analysis suggests that North Korea is once again targeting the Korean Peninsula. Rather than focusing on nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), North Korea is concentrating on missile development to evade the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, and it is known to have significantly reinforced its forces near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea.

Since the Cheonan ship sinking in 2010, North Korea has focused on developing long-range missiles. This was because they needed a launch vehicle capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, which required miniaturization of the warhead through nuclear tests. In 2012, under the pretext of "peaceful space development," North Korea launched the long-range rocket "Unha-3." North Korea claimed that the artificial satellite "Kwangmyongsong-3" was onboard the Unha-3 at that time. In 2013, they continued with the third nuclear test and declared the nullification of the armistice agreement. They conducted submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launches for surprise attacks as well as the sixth nuclear test. In November 2017, North Korea launched the ICBM-class "Hwasong-15," which is evaluated as having completed the development of a nuclear warhead delivery vehicle.

However, North Korea’s missile development focus shifted toward the Korean Peninsula. In 2017, as the U.S. Forces Korea deployed the THAAD system and South Korea expanded the defense area of its Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system and strengthened missile interception capabilities, it was assessed that the development of new tactical weapons became necessary.

It is analyzed that North Korea has been enhancing the completeness of new weapons since 2018. The two short-range ballistic missile presumed projectiles launched on the 21st showed "anomalous maneuvers" (pull-up, glide, and ascent) during flight, which is regarded as a means to evade missile defense. In addition, North Korea continues test launches to improve the completeness of new tactical guided missiles (tactical guided weapons, North Korean version of Iskander), new large-caliber guided multiple rocket launchers, North Korean version of ATACMS, and super-large multiple rocket launchers.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, "The short-range ballistic missiles North Korea is recently developing are capable of low-altitude and anomalous flight, making it difficult for our Korean missile defense system to intercept them," adding, "They use solid fuel, enabling surprise attacks, and multiple missiles can be loaded on a launcher, significantly improving simultaneous strike capability."

North Korea has also significantly reinforced its forces near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. North Korea constructs one to two submarines annually, including small Yeonpyeong-class submarines (about 130 tons). The constructed submarines are deployed to forward bases under the West Sea and East Sea Fleet Commands and are actively operating. Recently, the construction of vessels to replace surface ships that have been in operation for over 40 years has also been identified. Although North Korea’s surface ship forces were outdated and incomparable to the South Korean Navy’s surface fleet, it is known that efforts are underway to compensate for this disadvantage.

North Korea’s artillery forces targeting the West Sea’s five islands and the Seoul metropolitan area have also been strengthened. They have forward-deployed 122mm multiple rocket launchers with a range of 20 km to the front-line areas of Jangjaedo, Mudo, and Wolnaedo in the West Sea, giving them the capability to attack all targets on the NLL sea area.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.