COVID-19 Concentrated at 5~11°C... 'Spread Likely to Slow as Temperature Rises'

If Following Different Viral Respiratory Disease Routes
Likely to Worsen in the Southern Hemisphere via Canada, Northern Europe, etc.

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Will the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) disappear as it gets warmer, allowing outdoor activities without masks? Some scientists predict that if COVID-19 follows the pattern of other respiratory diseases, its spread could be temporarily curbed.

On the 24th (local time), experts forecast that COVID-19 will exhibit seasonal characteristics similar to influenza and other diseases. Likewise, it is predicted that COVID-19 will not show severe outbreaks in warm regions such as the tropics.

On the 20th, the fourth solar term of spring, Chunbun, red plum blossoms are in full bloom at Bongeunsa Temple in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Professor Mohamed Sajadi of the University of Maryland Virus Research Institute stated, "Based on the progress so far, COVID-19 appears to be difficult to transmit among people living in warm climates." Chinese researchers also concluded from analyzing the transmission process of COVID-19 that "the transmissibility of COVID-19 decreased in high temperature and high humidity."

On the 23rd, the cherry blossoms in full bloom on Saessak-ro, Busanjin-gu, are catching the eye.
Busan ? Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

According to Professor Sajadi's research, COVID-19 has the highest transmissibility in low humidity and temperatures between 5°C and 11°C. In fact, COVID-19 has been concentrated in regions between 30° and 50° north latitude, such as the United States and China.

However, if these research results are accurate, COVID-19 is likely to become rampant in places like Northern Europe or Canada as the Northern Hemisphere's climate gradually warms. This suggests that the virus may then spread vigorously in the Southern Hemisphere, where the climate is opposite to that of the Northern Hemisphere. Later, when winter starts again at the end of this year, there is a high possibility that COVID-19 will surge again in the Northern Hemisphere.

Experts cite several factors related to the seasonal outbreaks of viral respiratory diseases. First, although viruses multiply inside the human body at 37°C, they spread more effectively outside the body at lower temperatures. Another factor is that during cold weather, people spend more time indoors, making transmission easier. Additionally, reduced exposure to sunlight in winter, which helps produce vitamin D, is analyzed to weaken the human immune system.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, there is also a caution that COVID-19 should not be expected to disappear just because it gets warmer. Professor Mark Lipsitch, an infectious disease expert at Harvard University, pointed out, "While warmer and more humid weather may cause a gradual increase in COVID-19 transmission, there is no reasonable basis to predict that this factor alone will create a significant turning point."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.