Sincheonji and Daegu also show signs of declining 'positive rate'... Entering a calming trend (Comprehensive)

Image source=Yonhap News

[Asia Economy reporters Choi Dae-yeol, Kim Heung-soon, Jo Hyun-ui] The quarantine authorities have managed to contain the surge of additional confirmed COVID-19 cases that had rapidly increased over several days by focusing diagnostic testing on symptomatic individuals from the Shincheonji Jesus Church in Daegu. The 'positivity rate,' calculated based on the number of additional patients relative to those tested, is showing signs of decline. The positivity rate is significant as it serves as a leading indicator reflecting the trend of confirmed cases and helps predict future developments, since the number of confirmed cases tends to fluctuate in a similar pattern a few days after changes in the positivity rate.

Since the emergence of patient number 31 (a 61-year-old female) from the Shincheonji Daegu Church on the 18th of last month, the positivity rate, which once soared to 7% (on February 23), has recently fluctuated and dropped to the 4% range over the past week. The positivity rate is also gradually decreasing in diagnostic tests conducted on approximately 10,000 Shincheonji Daegu Church members. This marks a new phase in determining whether secondary and tertiary infections are spreading, mainly in the Daegu area. The Daegu city government stated, "Although the number of confirmed cases relative to the number of tests is gradually decreasing, it is too early to make a definitive judgment," expressing a cautious stance.

4.5% Positivity per 10,000 Tests Conducted
Quarantine Authorities Assess "Secondary Transmission Risk Contained"

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters for COVID-19, as of midnight on the 5th, the total number of COVID-19 diagnostic tests conducted domestically reached 146,541. This is an increase of 9,834 from 136,707 as of midnight on the 4th. The number of confirmed cases increased by 438 in one day. The positivity rate, calculated based on additional tests and confirmed cases, stands at 4.5%. Since the 27th of last month, the quarantine authorities have expanded testing to around 10,000 people per day. This was to identify symptomatic individuals and close contacts among Shincheonji Daegu Church members as much as possible to promptly block community transmission.

As 500 to 700 patients tested positive daily among this group, the positivity rate, which was only 1.6% on the 25th of last month, surged to 6.2% four days later. Since then, the positivity rate has fluctuated without reaching a new peak: 5.3% on the 1st, 4.5% on the 2nd, 3.7% on the 3rd, 4.8% on the 4th, and 4.5% on the current day.

Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters for COVID-19, remarked, "As many diagnostic tests have been conducted on Shincheonji Daegu Church members, the overall number of patients is decreasing," adding, "Although confirmed cases increased by 500 to 600 daily for a while, since these individuals were already under quarantine management and identified through testing, we believe the risk of secondary transmission has been maximally contained."

Image source=Yonhap News

Positivity Rate at 'Shincheonji Daegu' Also on a Declining Trend
Daegu City to Expand Diagnostic Testing to General Citizens
Daegu Mayor: "Need to Monitor Until Weekend"

The positivity rate among Shincheonji Daegu Church members, who led the rapid increase in domestic patient numbers, is also decreasing. The total number of members is 10,914. As of this date, 8,458 have completed testing, and results for 6,540 have been received. Among these, 3,394 tested positive, resulting in a positivity rate of 51.9%, down 16.2 percentage points from 68.1% on the 2nd.

According to the quarantine authorities and Daegu city, 70-80% of the daily additional confirmed cases nationwide are from the Daegu area. Of these, over 70% are linked to the Shincheonji Daegu Church. If the positivity rate among this group declines, the number of additional confirmed cases nationwide will also significantly decrease. Indeed, the daily additional confirmed cases nationwide dropped from 600 on the 3rd to the 400 range on this day.

Daegu Mayor Kwon Young-jin stated, "The daily positivity rate among Shincheonji Daegu Church members was 27.9% as of the 4th, significantly lower compared to the initial outbreak situation in the region when it was 87%." According to Daegu city, 813 Shincheonji Daegu Church members received test results in one day, with 220 confirmed positive.

Considering the declining positivity rate among Shincheonji members, Daegu city has decided to expand diagnostic testing to the general public. This is to block secondary and tertiary infections spreading to family members, relatives, and acquaintances of the members. As of midnight on this day, out of 27,509 diagnostic tests conducted by Daegu city, 19,051 (69.3%) were allocated to the general public. The daily average number of diagnostic tests, which was about 2,100 from the 1st to the 3rd, was increased to over 3,000 starting on the 4th.

Mayor Kwon emphasized, "Although the number of confirmed cases is slightly slowing compared to the expanded number of tests, it is too early to make a definitive judgment, so we need to monitor the situation until this weekend."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.