Average Treatment Period 16.3 Days... Shincheonji Recoveries Expected to Increase Starting This Weekend

Discharge Expected Starting from 'Super Spreader' Patient No. 31

[Asia Economy reporters Choi Dae-yeol, Kim Heung-soon, Jo Hyun-ui] As of midnight on the 5th, the number of recovered patients from the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) was counted at 88. Nearly 100 patients were released from quarantine between 4 p.m. the previous day and midnight on the same day, marking the highest number since the count began. Considering the average treatment period of patients is 16 days, the number of recovered patients is expected to increase more rapidly based on patient number 31, a Shincheonji Jesus Church patient who was confirmed positive on the 18th of last month.

Analysis of data from the Central Disease Control Headquarters by Asia Economy on the same day showed that the average quarantine period for recovered patients whose patient numbers and discharge dates were disclosed was calculated to be 16.3 days. By age group, patients in their 20s had the longest average quarantine period at 18.8 days, followed by those in their 60s (18.3 days), 40s (16.1 days), 50s (15.6 days), and 30s (12.8 days).

Patient number 31 (female, 61), identified as the 'super spreader' in the Daegu region, was confirmed positive on the 18th of last month. As the first Shincheonji-related patient, she attended a Shincheonji Daegu Church service on the 16th of the same month and was transferred to Daegu Medical Center on the afternoon of the 17th after experiencing fever and pneumonia symptoms. Considering that the average quarantine period for recovered patients in their 60s is 18.3 days, this patient is expected to be discharged as early as this weekend.

Attention is also focused on whether those related to the Shincheonji Daegu Church will consecutively receive recovery confirmations starting with patient number 31. After patient number 31, the first patient in Daegu, was confirmed positive, the number of patients surged daily: 11 on the 19th at 9 a.m., 34 on the 20th, and 84 on the 21st. The number of patients exceeded 1,000 within 9 days of the outbreak and surpassed 4,000 the previous day.

Since two weeks have passed since the group infection occurred in Daegu, health authorities expect the number of recovered patients to increase significantly. Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said the previous day, "Most of the initial patients have been discharged, but those who increased explosively after patient number 31 have not yet reached their discharge period," adding, "The number of quarantine releases is increasing at Cheongdo Daenam Hospital in Gyeongbuk, and since more than two weeks have passed since the outbreak in Daegu, quarantine releases will increase sequentially."

Similar patterns are expected at the Shincheonji Daegu Church, as 20 patients were massively confirmed recovered at Cheongdo Daenam Hospital, where 102 confirmed cases occurred. The cluster infection patients in Daegu number 2,583, accounting for 64.5% of the region's total confirmed cases.

Currently, 56% of all confirmed cases are related to Shincheonji, but this proportion is expected to increase. This is because many of the cases under investigation are presumed to be second and third infections caused by Shincheonji members. Head Jung said, "A considerable number will likely be classified as second and third infections related to Shincheonji," but added, "After identifying patient number 31, about 9,000 Shincheonji believers were self-quarantined, and we believe that second and third transmissions were blocked as much as possible."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.