Hundreds Infected Every Morning... 3 Reasons Why the 'Shincheonji Super-Spreading' Is Not Subsiding

Image source=Yonhap News

[Asia Economy reporters Choi Dae-yeol, Kim Heung-soon, Jo Hyun-ui] The number of additional confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in Daegu, triggered by the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu, continues to rise without showing signs of slowing down. According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters for COVID-19, as of midnight on the 4th, the cumulative number of patients in Daegu was 4,006, an increase of 405 from 3,601 as of midnight on the 3rd. Over the past week since the 26th of last month, 3,329 additional cases have been confirmed, averaging 476 new cases per day. There are three main reasons presumed for why the 'Shincheonji-originated' large-scale outbreak has not subsided: the Shincheonji side may have concealed symptomatic believers, significant secondary and tertiary infections may have already occurred within the region, or there is a possibility that community transmission occurred due to ignoring self-quarantine guidelines.

Did They Conceal the Number of Symptomatic Cases?
Delays in Lists and Many Lost Contacts

The number of Shincheonji believers managed by Daegu city stands at 10,914 as of this date. So far, 7,913 have undergone diagnostic testing, and among the 5,715 whose results have been notified, 3,168 (55.4%) tested positive. In the full survey conducted by the quarantine authorities targeting Shincheonji believers in Daegu Church until the 22nd of last month, 1,299 people reported symptoms such as cough and fever indicative of COVID-19. However, the number of confirmed patients to date is more than twice that figure. It is highly likely that during the initial full survey, many believers either did not properly report suspicious symptoms or did not clearly recognize their symptoms.

The full surveys conducted by quarantine authorities and local governments are handled by dedicated teams mainly composed of public officials. They confirm the presence or absence of symptoms through telephone surveys with believers listed in the secured roster and recommend diagnostic testing and self-quarantine. However, there have been doubts about the effectiveness of this approach. A local government official involved in the full survey said, "There are countless cases where calls to Shincheonji believers throughout the day go unanswered or the respondents do not properly reply."

Secondary and Tertiary Infections Progressing Locally
General Citizens Also Exposed to Virus

There is a possibility that many general citizens who are not Shincheonji believers have also been exposed to the virus. This is the spread of secondary and tertiary infections transmitted to close family members, relatives, and acquaintances of those in self-quarantine. As of the 3rd, 15,586 general citizens in Daegu have completed diagnostic testing. According to the analysis by quarantine authorities, about 1,300 patients with no confirmed connection to the Shincheonji Daegu Church have also been identified.

Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters said, "In China, secondary transmission occurred in 75-85% of patients' families," and added, "There is a high possibility of additional patients emerging among close contacts of Shincheonji Daegu believers or among other close contacts." The government has decided to extend the self-quarantine period by two weeks for Shincheonji Daegu Church believers who have not yet undergone diagnostic testing and to expand testing for general citizens of Daegu. Daegu Mayor Kwon Young-jin emphasized, "This week is a critical moment to assess the extent of additional community infections."

Shincheonji Jesus Church Daegu [Image source=Yonhap News]

Did They Ignore Self-Quarantine Rules?
Cases Increase Despite Facility Closure Over Two Weeks

The Shincheonji Daegu Church closed its doors after the last worship service on the 16th of last month. All believers affiliated with this church entered self-quarantine. A dedicated workforce of 3,000, including city officials and police, is monitoring compliance. Clinical experts estimate the incubation period of COVID-19 to be on average 3-4 days, extending to 7-8 days, with a maximum incubation period of 14 days. Considering all these factors and the isolation of patients from external contact, the number of additional cases should have started to decline now, two weeks after the closure of the Shincheonji facility. Contrary to this expectation, suspicions are growing that some believers may be violating self-quarantine rules.

In fact, a confirmed case of a woman in her 70s among Shincheonji Daegu Church believers was found to have used public transportation on the 22nd of last month during her self-quarantine period, traveling with her husband to Chuncheon in Gangwon Province and Namyangju. An official from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety said, "We have developed an application that uses GPS functionality to sound an alarm if a self-quarantined person leaves their designated location," and added, "Although the plan was to implement this app starting March 9, we have moved the date forward to the 7th and will begin with the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions."

Meanwhile, in the Gyeongbuk region, where a cluster infection occurred centered around Cheongdo Daenam Hospital, the number of patients increased by 89 in one day, reaching a total of 774. The combined confirmed cases in Daegu and Gyeongbuk reached 4,780, accounting for 89.7% of the total (5,328 cases).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.