[Summary] North Korea Launches Projectile... Preparing for a 'New Path'?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] North Korea fired two unidentified projectiles into the East Sea from the Wonsan area in Gangwon Province. This is the first time North Korea has launched projectiles this year.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff said on the 2nd, "North Korea fired two unidentified projectiles into the East Sea from near Wonsan this afternoon," adding, "These projectiles were detected by the military's ballistic missile early warning radar."

The military authorities are conducting a detailed analysis of the type, flight distance, and altitude of the projectiles. However, as the projectiles are known to have flown about 230 km, they are presumed to be either new-type multiple rocket launchers or tactical surface-to-surface missiles.

This is the first time in 95 days since North Korea last fired projectiles on November 28 of last year. On November 28 last year, at around 4:59 p.m., North Korea launched two "super-large multiple rocket launchers" from the Yeonpo area in South Hamgyong Province. The projectiles reached a peak altitude of 97 km and flew 380 km before falling into the East Sea.

It is analyzed that North Korea's attempt to provoke missile launches this year is aimed at drawing the attention of the United States. Inter-Korean and North Korea-U.S. summit talks have been stalled since the Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit on February 27-28 last year ended with "no deal" (no results). Although dialogue has ceased, U.S. President Donald Trump's attention is focused on his re-election victory. This means that both domestic policies and foreign strategies are being set based on whether they help secure re-election.

In this context, the North Korea policy is no different. The general outlook is that President Trump is unlikely to take action unless there is a situation where he can achieve results that would help his re-election victory. President Trump has so far provided the core momentum for progress in North Korea-U.S. relations through a "top-down" approach.

In particular, by postponing the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for the 9th of this month, the justification for North Korea to provoke with missiles has effectively disappeared. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command officially announced on the 27th that the joint exercises would be postponed due to the impact of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). The postponement of the joint exercises scheduled for the 9th of next month by the military authorities of both countries was recorded as the first case where an infectious disease affected the 66-year history of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.

North Korea's internal situation is also unfavorable. Although North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un claims that COVID-19 has not entered the country, it is estimated that about 7,000 people in Pyongan Province and Gangwon Province are effectively under "home quarantine" surveillance. The Workers' Party organ, Rodong Sinmun, reported on the 1st in an article titled "Intensifying propaganda and quarantine efforts to prevent virus epidemics" that there are a total of about 3,900 "medical surveillance subjects," including approximately 2,420 in South Pyongan Province and 1,500 in Gangwon Province.

Because of this, there is speculation that North Korea's recent projectile launch may have been a test launch simply for performance improvement.

The British "Jane's International Defence Review (JIDR)" stated in last month's issue, "North Korea conducted a liquid-fuel engine test on December 7 last year," adding, "On the 12th, South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo also mentioned that this engine is a liquid engine with greater output than before, and that it is for ICBMs." Furthermore, Lee Willett and Nick Hansen evaluated in this article that "Chairman Kim Jong-un intends to show North Korean residents that if the U.S. does not bring a new calculation on denuclearization by the end of 2019, North Korea will declare that it is taking a 'new way or path.'"

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.