Clouds Over China's Economic Growth Rate This Year Due to Novel Coronavirus... Many Institutions Lower Forecasts

Multiple Institutions Lower Initial Economic Growth Forecast by 0.5% to 1%

[Asia Economy Reporter Ki-min Lee] As the novel coronavirus infection (Wuhan pneumonia) spreads, major institutions are lowering their growth rate forecasts for the Chinese economy this year.

According to major foreign media on the 5th, the British economic research institute Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) stated that the novel coronavirus could reduce China's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by 0.5% to 1 percentage point this year. Accordingly, it lowered its growth forecast to 4.9% to 5.4% from the previous estimate.

Citigroup also revised down its growth forecast for China this year from 5.8% to 5.5%, and Macquarie lowered it from 5.9% to 5.6%. Additionally, UBS reduced its forecast from 6% to 5.5%.

These institutions expect the novel coronavirus to have a negative impact on the Chinese economy, which will be reflected immediately in the first quarter. Macquarie lowered its first-quarter growth forecast for China from 5.9% to 4%. In particular, the British firm Capital Economics revised its first-quarter growth forecast down from 5.5% to 3%. However, Moody's, which initially analyzed China's growth forecast for this year at 5.8%, did not change its figures.

Meanwhile, companies affected by the novel coronavirus are also lowering their operating performance forecasts for this year. Bloomberg quoted Liu Yangwei (劉揚偉), chairman of Taiwan's Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision Industry), the iPhone manufacturer, as saying that the sales growth forecast for this year was lowered from the previous 3-5% to 1-3%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.