"Beyond the New Coronavirus Pandemic, Heading Toward a Catastrophe?"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] "Scientists still cannot predict how many people will lose their lives due to the novel coronavirus infection (Wuhan pneumonia)."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

On the 2nd (local time), leading epidemiologists worldwide warned that the novel coronavirus is heading toward a pandemic, the New York Times (NYT) reported. Despite various travel restrictions and quarantines implemented by governments around the world, it is difficult to stop the rapid spread.

Although much about the novel coronavirus remains unknown, epidemiologists generally agree that human-to-human transmission occurs easily. The transmission speed surpasses that of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

Professor Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), under the U.S. National Institutes of Health, said, "It is spreading very rapidly," adding, "It is certain to become a global pandemic. The question is whether it will lead to a catastrophe."

The number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus is rapidly increasing, exceeding 17,205 in China alone. However, this is only the official government statistic, and it is estimated that the actual number exceeds 100,000. This far surpasses the 8,098 cases recorded over nine months for SARS and the approximately 2,500 cases recorded since 2012 for MERS.

The concern is the mortality rate. For SARS, 1 out of 10 infected people died, and for MERS, 1 out of 3 died.

Scientists still cannot even predict how many people will die because they do not know enough about the novel coronavirus. For example, it is unknown how many people have antibodies, how easily it can be transmitted to family members or close contacts, and more. Additionally, it is still unclear who is vulnerable, what the vulnerable infection routes are, how quickly the virus replicates, and whether the virus weakens as the weather warms.

Experts say that simply closing borders cannot stop the novel coronavirus. However, border closures and strengthened quarantines can help develop response measures such as vaccines or prescription drugs. Moreover, the risk of asymptomatic transmission is significant. There are concerns that coronavirus carriers can move without showing any symptoms. This makes it difficult to respond effectively with only fever checks. In Europe, 75% of confirmed novel coronavirus cases were considered to be in the incubation period, meaning they did not show symptoms such as fever, cough, or difficulty breathing.

Experts believe that the novel coronavirus will be more severe in low-income countries. While advanced countries have the capacity to identify and isolate transmitters, low-income countries have less capability. Especially if it spreads to regions like Africa, there is a possibility of astronomical damage.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.