US Democrats Face Fierce Battle for 3rd Place in Iowa, More Intense Than 1st and 2nd

Biden and Sanders Lead Race as Buttigieg and Warren Compete for 3rd Place
Long-Term Primary Success Hinges on Securing Support Base in Iowa, the Political Barometer

Senator Elizabeth Warren campaigning in Iowa
Photo by EPA Yonhap News

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] On the eve of the Iowa Caucus, the starting point of the U.S. presidential election this November, the Democratic primary candidates are intensifying their campaign efforts to secure third place. With the first and second places becoming clear, securing at least third place in the first caucus is crucial to being recognized as a competitive candidate in the upcoming primaries.

According to U.S. media on the 2nd (local time), former Vice President Joe Biden, leading with the "front-runner" momentum, and Senator Bernie Sanders, the "outsider," are forming the leading group. CBS News cited a YouGov poll showing that Biden and Sanders are tied at 25% support each. Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg holds 21%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren has 16%, creating a fierce competition for the third place.

Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg
[Photo by AP News]

Local media evaluate that maintaining a top-three position in the caucus is essential for a long run in the primaries. AFP News highlighted the political adage, "There are three tickets in Iowa," emphasizing the significance of finishing in the top three in the first contest. The top three candidates determined at the Iowa Caucus will have the capacity to continue through the upcoming primary schedule, including the New Hampshire Primary on the 11th.

Especially since the top two Democratic candidates are both white septuagenarian men, the third place candidate stands out more distinctly. Senators Warren and former Mayor Buttigieg symbolize women and people in their 30s, respectively, attracting attention for generational and gender diversity.

For these reasons, the third-place candidates, Warren and Buttigieg, actively appealed for support until the final moments of last weekend’s campaigns. Buttigieg campaigned with 2,000 supporters at Lincoln High School in Des Moines. Warren also focused on campaigning until she returned to Washington D.C. that evening for President Donald Trump’s Senate impeachment trial. Although Warren’s support is declining, a strong showing in this caucus is essential to maintain her position as a leading reformist within the Democratic Party.

This caucus is also expected to be a variable in victory or defeat due to the application of new rules different from the past. Not only the final vote percentages but also the initial vote percentages will be disclosed. Small and medium candidates who fail to meet the 15% threshold (the 15% rule) will find it difficult to secure delegates, but the disclosure of initial vote percentages might encourage them to unite and increase their influence. Therefore, candidates with a certain level of support but uncertain about reaching the 15% threshold are likely to benefit.

In the 2016 Iowa Caucus, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Sanders practically split the votes, but this time, smaller candidates are more likely to gain meaningful vote shares. This means they can hold on at least until the "Super Tuesday" on March 3rd.

The 15% rule is also important for the two front-runners, as the number of delegates they secure depends on how many supporters of smaller candidates they can absorb. In the past, "realignment" occurred multiple times, but this year it will be allowed only once to speed up the process. Ultimately, it will be necessary to watch the final voting results to determine who benefits from this caucus.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.