China's Growth Rate at 6.1% Last Year... Lowest in 29 Years (Update)

China's Q4 Growth Rate Stalls at 6%
2024 Growth Forecast in the 5% Range...Assessment of 'New Normal' Entry

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Park Sun-mi] Last year, China's economic growth rate barely reached 6%, marking the lowest level in 29 years. With forecasts suggesting it will fall to the 5% range this year, there is an assessment that China has entered a new standard (New Normal) where high-speed growth is no longer possible. In the socialist country of China, people's livelihood is a crucial issue directly linked to regime stability. As the Chinese economy chooses quality over speed and enters the New Normal, revisions to economic policies are also expected to be inevitable.

On the 17th, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that last year's economic growth rate was 6.1%. Although it was within the government's growth target range (6~6.5%), it was the lowest figure since 1990, when the growth rate was 3.9% just before the start of high growth. Quarterly, the growth rate slowed from 6.4% in the first quarter of last year to 6.2% in the second quarter, 6.0% in the third quarter, and 6.0% in the fourth quarter. The growth rates in the third and fourth quarters of last year were the lowest since quarterly statistics began to be compiled in 1992.

Last year's growth rate fully reflected the impact of the US-China trade war, which intensified from July 2018. Various indicators that reveal the overall economic situation, such as industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment, frequently showed slowed growth rates due to the trade war's impact. The monthly industrial production growth rate peaked at 8.5% in March last year and fell to 4.4% in August, the lowest level in 17 years. Amid the uncertainty of the US-China trade war, as Chinese people tightened their belts, retail sales growth rates in April and October last year dropped to 7.2%, the lowest in 16 years. The growth rate of fixed asset investment also retreated to historically low levels.

Given that China's annual growth rate peaked at 10.6% in 2010 and has gradually declined since, there is a view that China's high-speed growth has reached structural limits. It is said that entering the 5% growth rate range is not at all unusual, marking the entry into the 'New Normal.'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.