[Report] Taiwan Presidential Election D-1, Festival Scene Clearly Divided by Generations and China Policy Differences

-Visiting the Hot Election Scene in Taipei, Taiwan
-Election Campaigns Like Festivals...Active Final Campaigns to Rally Supporters
-Why Is Tsai Ing-wen Rising While Han Kuo-yu Is Fading?

[Asia Economy Taipei (Taiwan) = Park Sun-mi, Beijing Correspondent] Taiwan, where the 15th presidential election (general election) will be held on the 11th, is heating up with election fever. From grandmothers and grandfathers to granddaughters who have just started walking, three generations come out holding banners supporting their candidate, shouting "Victory! Victory!" Although the latest approval poll results made it somewhat predictable that the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) President Tsai Ing-wen is about 30 percentage points ahead of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, both sides were equally passionate as if it were a close race.

◆ "I returned from the UK to vote." = Wan Rui, who turned 21 this year and is an art school student studying in the UK, came back to Taipei to exercise her right to vote for the first time. Meeting her at the airport on the 9th, she said, "I deliberately timed my return because I felt the young vote is precious in this election," adding, "Many people like me are around. Even peers who don't know much about politics talk a lot about this election. It feels like a generational confrontation." She expressed support for DPP's President Tsai and said the decisive factors that won over her generation were the Hong Kong protests and the passage of the same-sex marriage law.

The DPP support office in Zhongzheng District, Taipei, was busy with young people coming to prepare for President Tsai's final campaign rally scheduled to start at 5 p.m. on the election eve, after work hours the day before. Liao Yingyi, who volunteers as a caretaker of the support office, said the decisive reason for the high youth participation in this Taiwan election is the Hong Kong protests. He explained, "Taiwanese youth have a strong sense of freedom and democracy, and after experiencing the Hong Kong situation, they think that if Taiwan leans pro-China, freedom of expression might be suppressed like in Hong Kong. This is why Tsai Ing-wen strongly appeals to the youth with an anti-China stance."

Contrary to President Tsai's strong appeal to the younger generation, the parental generation largely supports Mayor Han. The Kaida Grand Boulevard, connecting the Presidential Office Building and Taipei City Hall, was filled with supporters of Mayor Han and the KMT from 5 p.m. on the 9th. The campaign rally felt like a festival. Supporters dressed in the KMT's symbolic red clothes waved the Taiwanese flag, the Blue Sky with a White Sun, which is red and blue, shouting "Han Kuo-yu, victory! Han Kuo-yu, victory!" The scene resembled a concert as they turned on their phone flashlights and waved them side to side in rhythm with the chants. When claims were made on stage that President Tsai had deceived Taiwanese people in her governance and that change was needed, supporters shouted and cheered loudly. Voices saying they could not be deceived by Tsai again erupted everywhere.

The KMT presented the slogan "Taiwan Safety, People Prosperity (臺灣安全, 人民有錢)" at the event, promising to boost the economy based on stable relations with mainland China so that Taiwanese citizens can earn well.

Jinny Chen, a 60-year-old woman who came to Taipei with a team from Los Angeles to participate in this election, expressed that she could not understand the Taiwan independence movement advocated by President Tsai and supported by the youth. She said, "Taiwan was originally part of China," and "I cannot understand attempts to separate what cannot be separated." She added, "Since the U.S. forms relations with other countries based on its interests, even if pro-China Mayor Han is elected president and the KMT expands its influence, the U.S. will not distance itself from Taiwan."

◆ Focus on 'how many people participate in voting' = According to the Taiwan Election Commission, voting for the presidential election, held together with the legislative election, will take place on the 11th from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. The results are expected late at night on the 11th.

Although polls show President Tsai leading, the final outcome of this election is expected to be significantly influenced by voter turnout. Taiwan's presidential election turnout has gradually declined from 82.7% in 2000, 80.3% in 2004, 76.3% in 2008, 74.4% in 2012, to 66% in 2016, but this year, with stronger election enthusiasm, turnout is likely to rise. Since the younger and older generations clearly support different candidates, the key variable is how many voters from each generation participate.

There are about 19.34 million eligible voters in this election, with approximately 25% being young voters aged 35 or younger. Voters aged 20 to 23, who have just gained voting rights, make up 6% of the total. In the three presidential elections between 2008 and 2016, voter turnout among the 20-35 age group was only 50-60%, while turnout among those aged 65 and older was over 80%. However, with increased interest from the youth this time, higher participation from them could strengthen the DPP's position.

This is why President Tsai emphasizes protecting Taiwan's freedom and democracy through social networking services (SNS) and actively encourages young people to vote. On the other hand, KMT supporters believe that the previously passive swing voters, who were reluctant to express opinions in various polls due to the current administration, may turn out in large numbers to vote for Mayor Han.

Nathan Bato, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science at Taiwan's premier academic institution, Academia Sinica, cited factors expanding President Tsai's support base during a Taiwan election roundtable attended by some foreign journalists including Asia Economy: strengthening relations with the U.S., economic growth exceeding expectations, tax cuts, passage of the same-sex marriage law, increased infrastructure investment, and expanded spending on child and elderly welfare. He attributed the sharp decline in Mayor Han's support to factors such as creating an atmosphere of getting too close to China, personal moral and ethical issues including alcohol, gambling, and women, and underwhelming administrative performance since becoming Kaohsiung mayor.

However, the fact that the support rates for President Tsai and Mayor Han have not been firmly established over a long period is a source of anxiety for the DPP and hope for the KMT. Researcher Bato introduced, "Until just a few months ago, the majority in Taiwan expressed 'dissatisfaction' with President Tsai's governance." He explained, "In the fourth quarter of 2018, 67.9% expressed 'dissatisfaction' and 20.9% 'satisfaction,' but by the end of last year, after experiencing the Hong Kong protests, the mood reversed to 43.9% 'dissatisfaction' and 51.4% 'satisfaction.'"

The fourth quarter of 2018 was when the KMT achieved a landslide victory in the November local elections, with the sudden rise of Mayor Han, dealing a significant political blow to President Tsai, who then stepped down from the party chairmanship.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.