[The Editors' Verdict] Major Turning Points for the Korean Peninsula in 2020

Hong Min, Director of the North Korea Research Office at the Korea Institute for National Unification

North Korea unusually omitted the New Year's speech by Chairman Kim Jong-un on January 1 and instead presented its future strategic direction through a decision at the Party Central Committee plenary meeting. This revealed the initial outline of the so-called 'new path' that Chairman Kim had proclaimed. In short, it is a path of 'endurance' that strengthens deterrence and self-reliance until there is a change in the U.S. stance. North Korea named this the 'direct breakthrough battle.' Although there was no 'declaration' such as the resumption of nuclear and missile tests or a complete halt to North Korea-U.S. talks, which had been feared, it repeatedly emphasized the development of new strategic weapons, signaling that the level of crisis could escalate depending on the U.S. attitude in the future.

For now, the 'new path' revealed initially has a strongly transitional character. It means it is not a predetermined path that mechanically executes plans according to a fixed schedule. It is likely a method of adding, modifying, or adjusting options and items prepared in response to the U.S. stance, regional situation, South Korea's role, and other circumstances. Chairman Kim hinted at responding according to changes in the 'U.S. stance toward North Korea' at this Party plenary meeting. This attitude seems to reflect the judgment that the uncertainty of the situation will be significant over the next year. Key variables include the domestic and international political situation in the U.S., cooperation with China and Russia, China's mediating role, South Korea's general election, and efforts to improve inter-Korean relations.

Ultimately, North Korea has tentatively chosen a transitional waiting strategy of 'watching,' maintaining appropriate 'tension,' and seizing 'opportunities.' It described this as the 'long-term nature of the deadlock.' However, it is not merely a path of silent observation. The announcement of the unveiling of new strategic weapons means that it intends to raise the threat level depending on the U.S. stance and the situation in the future. If the U.S., South Korea, neighboring countries, and the international community do not actively manage the situation over the next year, there is a possibility of an uncontrollable catastrophe. There are many unseen variables and visible 'landmines' placed everywhere.

First, January to February this year is a critical turning point. Variables include the U.S. Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, the reorganization of the U.S. State Department's North Korea negotiation team, and the U.S. re-election race starting with the Iowa caucuses in February. However, the situation is not easy. President Trump chose to attack Iran and escalate tensions, bringing the Middle East issue to the forefront. The Middle East appears to be gearing up for a confrontation with the U.S. This makes it highly likely that North Korea-U.S. negotiations will be sidelined.

President Trump's chances of re-election are also uncertain. Even if the impeachment is resolved, scars will remain, and foreign policy achievements are not prominent. Although the U.S.-China trade war was loud, it only left wounds and did not yield much gain. The international economy has been criticized as having worsened. The awkward conflicts with NATO European leaders are also considered 'mistakes' in terms of U.S. leadership. The biggest variable is when and who becomes the Democratic presidential candidate. Depending on who this candidate is, it could greatly affect President Trump's re-election path.

North Korea's declaration of a 'long-term war' and choice of a path of 'watching,' 'tension,' and 'opportunity' is due to uncertainties originating from the U.S. The annual South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, usually starting in March, are the biggest hurdle. Without active messages from the U.S. and South Korea before then, March could mark the beginning of a crisis. The level of North Korea's 'new strategic weapons' display will be a gauge of the crisis level. Turkey is facing U.S. economic sanctions for introducing the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system. North Korea might bring out this problematic weapon. Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) are also possible. In 2017, Iran announced the successful test of the MIRV 'Khoramshahr,' which is based on North Korea's Musudan missile. It is highly likely that North Korea is already actively developing MIRVs. If there is a North Korea-Iran missile connection, this is feasible. It is also possible that the submarine launch of the Pukkuksong-3, a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), will be publicly displayed.

Hong Min, Director of North Korea Research Division, Korea Institute for National Unification

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.