The government's decision to increase medical school enrollment quotas by an annual average of 668 students from the 2027 to the 2031 academic year is expected to change the landscape of college admissions. The admissions industry predicts that the cutoff scores for medical schools will fall, and that the number of so-called "N-year retakers" making repeated attempts to enter medical school will increase. In particular, since all additional seats will be filled through the "regional doctor track," some observers say there is a possibility that a "niche market" will emerge in which students go to study in non-metropolitan regions.

On February 11, admissions experts projected that the number of N-year retakers taking the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) in the 2027 academic year, the first year of regional medical school expansion, will reach more than 160,000. They explained that this will easily exceed the previous year's figure of 159,922.

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For this year's CSAT, there is already a structurally large pool of 2007-born "golden pig year" repeaters, and it had long been expected that the number of N-year retakers would increase because it was the last year before the integrated CSAT system for the 2028 academic year. Because last year's CSAT was considered unusually difficult, the number of applicants who failed to gain admission through regular decision rose by 6.9% compared with the previous year. On top of this, the new variable of the "regional doctor track" has emerged, leading to projections that N-year retakers will flock to the 2027 CSAT.

Lim Seongho, head of Jongno Academy, said, "Some top engineering students may decide that the regional doctor track has created an opportunity to apply to medical school," adding, "Many current students are also likely to attempt 'half-retaking' this year, thinking this is their last chance before school report grades change from the current 9-level scale to a 5-level scale." He also predicted that as top-tier students shift toward medical schools, regular natural sciences students may also attempt to "switch universities."

There are also forecasts that the cutoff scores for medical school admission will fall. The reasoning is that the impact on admissions will be significant, given that the 2027 medical school expansion corresponds to more than 27% of the natural sciences intake at Seoul National University.

Some analysts say that at certain regional universities, even students with a school report grade of 4.7 could fall within the acceptance range. When medical school quotas were increased for the 2025 academic year, the cutoff for successful applicants to medical schools dropped by 0.3 of a grade, and in the Gangwon region, the acceptance range for regional talent tracks fell into the 4th-grade band on school reports.

As a result, observers expect medical school cutoffs to become bifurcated and demand to grow for niche strategies that take advantage of a structure favorable to regional applicants. Lee Mangi, director of the Uway Educational Evaluation Research Institute, said, "In general admissions, competition among the very top students will continue, while in the regional doctor track there is a possibility that a relatively different cutoff will be formed," adding, "We may see a bifurcation of cutoff scores." He also analyzed, "Given the number of test-takers, it is likely to be advantageous to apply through the regional doctor selection track in almost all regions, including Gangwon."

Among parents, some are already considering transferring their children to schools outside the Seoul metropolitan area, where applications to the regional doctor track are possible. One parent said, "We are thinking about moving our resident registration to places like Namyangju," and added, "If my child attends school outside the metropolitan area but receives private tutoring in Daechi-dong, I feel there might be a chance to cross the threshold into medical school."

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According to the medical school expansion plan announced the previous day by the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Ministry of Education, the enrollment quota for medical schools in the 2027 academic year will increase by 490 from the current 3,058 to 3,548. For the 2028 and 2029 academic years, the quota will be 3,671 students (an increase of 613), and for the 2030 and 2031 academic years, a public medical school (100 students) and regional medical schools (100 students) will be established, so that 3,871 students (an increase of 813) will be admitted each year.