MIT and U.S. Department of Energy's ORNL Joint Research Team Announces Findings
Development of the 'Iceberg Index' to Measure the Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technology "Predicting and Exploring What Happens When AI Interacts A Need for Analytical Frameworks to Capture Unseen Effects"
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has now reached a level where it could replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce,
according to an analysis by a research team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
The researchers found that AI adoption is rapidly expanding not only in technology sectors but also across diverse job categories such as human resources, logistics, and finance,
and pointed out that this structural transformation could occur throughout the labor market,
regardless of whether the region is urban or non-urban.
According to CNBC, a U.S. economic media outlet, on November 26 (local time),
the joint research team from MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under the U.S. Department of Energy
announced on the same day that currently adopted AI technology has reached a level where it could replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market.
"Implementing a Mixed Society Through the Iceberg Index"
The research team developed the 'Iceberg Index' to measure the impact of AI technology on the U.S. labor market. Regarding this, the team stated, "Through the Iceberg Index, we have realized a 'mixed society' where over 150 million workers and thousands of AI agents operate together," adding, "It allows us to measure how AI capabilities create ripple effects on human skills and how much each skill and community is exposed to AI." They further explained, "Until now, we have spent a lot of time making AI 'smarter,' but the important thing now is to predict what happens when AI interacts. The Iceberg Index explores this new domain."
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AI Adoption Technology Accounts for 2.2% of Total Wage Value
Analysis results estimate that the 'visible' AI adoption technology, concentrated in computing and technology fields, accounts for about 2.2% (approximately 211 billion dollars) of the total wage value. However, the research team evaluated this as "just the tip of the iceberg." In particular, the researchers estimated that the value of AI technology applicable across human resources (HR), logistics, finance, and general office work amounts to 11.7% (about 1.2 trillion dollars) of the total wages of the U.S. labor force. They explained that such work areas are often not captured by simulation predictions.
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"Capturing AI's Economic Impact Requires a New Approach"
This impact is assessed to be widespread across all 50 states of the United States, including non-urban areas, not limited to urban regions. The research team emphasized that "indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), income, and unemployment rates explain less than 5% of technology-driven fluctuations," highlighting the need for a new approach to capture AI's impact on the economy. Since existing economic indicators do not fully reveal the changes AI brings to job structures and work performance methods, a separate analytical framework capable of identifying unseen effects is necessary.
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"This study helps identify areas vulnerable to AI impact"
The research team stated that the 'Iceberg Index' is not a tool to pinpoint the exact timing or location of job disappearance. Instead, this index serves as a 'snapshot' showing which technologies current AI systems can replace, and it is a tool that allows policymakers to systematically review various assumptions before allocating actual budgets and enacting laws. The researchers said that through this study, "business executives can identify which areas are particularly vulnerable to AI impact and determine priorities for necessary training, workforce retraining, and infrastructure investment."
