원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

President Lee Jae Myung, who is returning to work this weekend after a five-day vacation ending on the 8th, faces a host of pressing issues. Starting on the 10th, he will hold a summit meeting with General Secretary Toram of the Vietnamese Communist Party, who is making a state visit for four days and three nights. He must also preside over a Cabinet meeting to discuss the tax reform plan and the selection of special pardon recipients for Liberation Day. In addition, he needs to review the national policy tasks and government reorganization plan to be announced by the National Policy Planning Committee on the 13th, refine the message to be delivered at the National Appointment Ceremony on Liberation Day on the 15th, and accelerate preparations for the US-Korea summit, which is highly likely to be held at the end of August.

According to the Presidential Office, General Secretary Toram of the Vietnamese Communist Party will make a state visit to Korea from the 10th to the 13th. This marks the first visit by the top-ranking official of Vietnam's Communist Party in 11 years, since General Secretary Phu Trong's visit during the Park Geun Hye administration in 2014. President Lee plans to make the most of this first state visit since taking office, holding wide-ranging discussions not only on politics, security, and trade, but also on future strategy sectors such as high-speed rail and smart cities.

In a recent interview with Vietnamese media, President Lee emphasized the significance of the General Secretary's visit, stating, "On the international diplomatic stage, our two countries are comprehensive partners moving forward together toward the future," and added, "There is a growing need for cooperation from the perspective of peace on the Korean Peninsula." He also announced a goal to achieve $150 billion in bilateral trade between Korea and Vietnam by 2030 through enhanced cooperation.

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

The Cabinet meeting on the 12th, the first to be presided over by President Lee after returning to work, will confirm the special pardon recipients for Liberation Day and also coordinate the contentious issues in the tax reform plan. The Ministry of Justice convened the Pardon Review Committee the previous day and drew up a list of individuals to be pardoned and reinstated, including politicians and those convicted of livelihood-related crimes. Reportedly, the list includes former Innovation Party leader Cho Kuk, his wife and former Dongyang University professor Chung Kyung Sim, former lawmaker Choi Kang Wook, and former Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education superintendent Cho Hee Yeon.

The decision on whether to pardon and reinstate former leader Cho Kuk is a matter of intense interest in political circles. President Lee is expected to weigh the pros and cons until the last moment before making a decision. According to a survey conducted by JoWonCNI and Straight News from the 2nd to the 4th with 2,018 respondents, support and opposition for pardoning Cho Kuk were 48% and 47.6%, respectively. Within the Democratic Party, there is also a sharp divide between those in favor of the pardon and those urging caution, making the decision a difficult one.

The direction of the tax reform plan, which includes lowering the major shareholder standard for capital gains tax from the current 5 billion won to 1 billion won, is another issue requiring President Lee's decision. The tax reform plan involves amending the enforcement decree. The Democratic Party plans to deliver its final position on the tax reform plan at a high-level party-government consultative meeting on the 10th, and depending on how President Lee coordinates this, support from his base and internal party opinion are likely to fluctuate.

원본보기 아이콘

원본보기 아이콘

A strategy must also be formulated for the US-Korea summit, which is highly likely to be held at the end of August. While a major hurdle in trade negotiations was recently cleared with agreements such as mutual tariffs of 15% and the establishment of a $350 billion Korea-US investment fund, details have yet to be finalized. At the same time, President Donald Trump has declared that, in addition to mutual tariffs, he will impose a 100% tariff on all integrated circuits and semiconductors exported to the United States. Although Korea has received assurances of most-favored-nation status for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, there is no guarantee, given President Trump's unpredictable actions.

Security negotiations are also likely to intensify. The Trump administration, under the banner of "modernizing alliances," is expected to put major issues on the table, including increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, raising the cost-sharing for the US Forces Korea, and strengthening extended deterrence against China. It is highly likely that security-related issues will be discussed at the upcoming US-Korea summit. The Lee Jae Myung administration, which advocates pragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests, must find a way to solidify the US-Korea alliance while maintaining friendly relations with China and Russia.

There is also speculation that President Lee will move to appoint ambassadors to key countries. With a series of bilateral and multilateral summits scheduled, further delays in appointments are not feasible. Currently, the ambassador posts to the United States, China, Japan, and Russia are vacant. Former First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Lim Sungnam and former President of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy Cho Byungjae are being mentioned as possible candidates for US ambassador. In addition, appointments are likely for the Minister of Education and the Minister of Gender Equality and Family, both of which remain vacant due to previous candidates dropping out. Park Baekbeom, former Vice Minister of Education, is being mentioned as a candidate for Minister of Education, while Kwon In Sook, former Democratic Party lawmaker, and Seo Eun Sook, former Supreme Council member, are being discussed as possible candidates for Minister of Gender Equality and Family.