As anxiety spreads due to the prediction of a "major earthquake in Japan in July," experts have analyzed that if such an earthquake actually occurs, the Korean Peninsula could also be affected.

[Expert Warning]

"High-rise buildings across the Korean Peninsula could be affected"
Many buildings are not earthquake-resistant, so damage could be greater

On July 3, Professor Hong Taekyung of the Department of Earth System Sciences at Yonsei University stated on CBS Radio's "Park Jaehong's Hanpan Seungbu" that "the southern part of the Korean Peninsula is within 500 kilometers of the Nankai Trough," and explained, "If a major earthquake is expected there and if the magnitude is large, a significant amount of low-frequency energy will be released, so high-rise buildings along Korea's southern coast, and more broadly, across the entire Korean Peninsula, could be affected." He added, "Earthquakes that occur in Japan's Nankai Trough may not be just someone else's problem."

In particular, in Korea, there are not as many buildings designed with earthquake resistance as in Japan, so the damage could be greater. Professor Hong said, "In fact, we have little experience with major earthquakes," and continued, "Although our buildings have some seismic performance, they have never been tested in an actual earthquake. During the last earthquakes in the Nankai Trough in 1944 and 1946, there were no high-rise buildings in Korea."

He went on to say, "The 7.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred on August 8, 2024, was clearly recorded along Korea's southern coast, and at that time, the southern coastal area moved up and down by about 1 centimeter. If a 9.0 magnitude earthquake, which is 1,000 times stronger than a 7.1, were to occur, the Korean Peninsula would shake by more than 30 centimeters."

During the 7.1 magnitude earthquake in August 2024,
the southern coast area also moved about 1cm up and down.
In the case of a 9.0 magnitude earthquake, which is 1000 times stronger than 7.1, the shaking would exceed 30cm.

Regarding the heightened anxiety caused by more than 1,000 earthquakes occurring near the Tokara Islands since the end of June, he said, "The so-called 'Tokara legend' has not been scientifically verified to a great extent, but it seems to be a topic of discussion among the public." He continued, "Since June 20, there have been about 60 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or higher, all within a 25-kilometer radius, and among them, 17 were magnitude 5.0. Yesterday, there was even a magnitude 5.6 earthquake."

Professor Hong said, "Even at a plate boundary, it is extremely rare to see so many magnitude 4 or higher earthquakes in such a concentrated area over a short period of time. Usually, this kind of seismic activity is observed after a major earthquake of magnitude 9.0 or 8.0, during the aftershock period. The occurrence of these earthquakes means that a lot of stress has accumulated in this area and that the energy has not yet been released."