According to the National Barometer Survey (NBS), conducted by Embrain Public, KSTAT Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research and released on the 8th (surveyed nationwide from the 5th to the 7th among 1,000 men and women aged 18 and older via mobile phone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 22.1%), Lee received 43% support in the candidate suitability survey listing major candidates. Han Deoksu, the independent preliminary candidate, recorded 23%, Kim Moonsoo, the People Power Party candidate, had 12%, Lee Junseok, the Reform Party candidate, had 5%, and 15% responded "none" or did not answer.

There were also polls assuming candidate unification between Kim and Han, creating a hypothetical three-way race. In these scenarios, Lee received 43% support when unified under Kim and 44% when unified under Han. Even as the four-way race narrowed to three, Lee's support rate remained virtually unchanged.

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae Myung is giving an impromptu speech to residents and supporters in front of a store in Seokjeok-eup, Chilgok County, Gyeongbuk Province, during his third neighborhood listening tour on the 9th. Photo by Yonhap News

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Kim Moonsoo, the People Power Party presidential candidate, and Han Deoksu, the independent presidential preliminary candidate, are leaving after their second meeting for candidate unification at Sarangjae in the National Assembly on the 8th. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

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Presidential candidate Lee Junseok visits KAIST. Photo by Yonhap News

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A similar trend was observed in a Gallup poll (commissioned by Seoul Economic Daily and conducted via 100% wireless phone interviews with 1,014 people aged 18 and older nationwide from the 6th to the 7th, with a response rate of 16.5%). Lee recorded 50% support in a four-way race, and in three-way scenarios, he received 51% (if unified under Kim) and 50% (if unified under Han).

Some analysts interpret this as evidence of Lee's solid support base, but also as an indication of his limited ability to expand beyond it. There is, however, potential for change among centrist and conservative voters. According to the NBS, Lee's support rate among centrists is 50-52%, while 61% of centrists expressed a preference for a change in government, leaving about 10 percentage points of potential expansion. There is also room for growth among conservatives. Among conservative respondents, 21% favored a change in government, but Lee's support rate was only 15-16%.

Kim Bongshin, deputy CEO of MetaVoice, stated, "The polls confirm that Lee's support base is very solid, but they also pose a challenge in terms of expansion." However, Kim also predicted, "Considering the high willingness to vote among Democratic Party supporters, Lee's actual vote share could exceed poll results." For more details on the polls, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.