Starting with the Constitutional Court's ruling on the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Ducksoo on the 24th, next week is being called a "Judicial Super Week." Following the Constitutional Court's decision, which will determine whether Han returns as acting president, the Seoul High Court will deliver its verdict on Lee Jaemyung, leader of the Democratic Party, regarding his violation of the Public Official Election Act on the 26th. Legal circles predict that the highlight, the Constitutional Court's ruling on the impeachment of President Yoon Sukyeol, is likely to take place after Lee Jaemyung's appeal verdict. In other words, the fate of Han Ducksoo, Lee Jaemyung, and Yoon Sukyeol will be decided in that order by the judiciary.

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◆Possibility of Dismissal or Rejection in Han's Impeachment Case

The Constitutional Court held a single hearing on Han's impeachment case on the 19th of last month, closing it after just 90 minutes. This suggests that there were not many constitutional or legal issues at stake. Previous impeachment hearings for other cabinet members and prosecutors, which were ultimately dismissed by the Constitutional Court, also ended quickly.

The National Assembly's grounds for Han's impeachment include conspiring in and condoning President Yoon's December 3 insurrection, as well as ▲ rejecting the Kim Keonhee and Chae Sangbyeong special prosecutor bills ▲ joint state administration announcement with Han Donghoon and Han Ducksoo ▲ avoiding appointment of a permanent special prosecutor for insurrection ▲ rejecting the appointment of Constitutional Court justices, among others.

Prime Minister Han Ducksoo is speaking as a witness at the 10th hearing of President Yoon Sukyeol's impeachment trial held at the Constitutional Court in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on February 20. Photo by Constitutional Court

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The most notable issue is related to martial law. Jang Youngsoo, a professor at Korea University Law School, said, "The main issue for Han is being an 'accomplice to insurrection,' but since he only learned of the martial law at the cabinet meeting and immediately opposed it, the Constitutional Court is likely to rule that he is not an accomplice, regardless of whether insurrection occurred." A legal expert commented, "The likelihood of Han's impeachment being upheld is not high," adding, "It seems the Constitutional Court is trying to minimize complaints about due process and fairness before ruling on President Yoon's case."

When the National Assembly passed Han's impeachment bill, Speaker Woo Wonshik applied the quorum for cabinet members (a majority of 151 or more) instead of the presidential standard (two-thirds of all members, 200 or more), causing controversy. If the Constitutional Court finds this problematic, it could issue a "dismissal" decision.

◆When Will the Constitutional Court Rule on President Yoon's Impeachment?

With Han's case scheduled first, most predict that the ruling on President Yoon's impeachment will be postponed until later in the week at the earliest. This is because the Constitutional Court has almost never issued rulings on two consecutive days. The 26th, when Lee Jaemyung's appeal verdict is scheduled, is also the day of a nationwide mock exam for high school students. Given the expected fallout from President Yoon's impeachment ruling, it is unlikely the Constitutional Court will choose this day. Thus, the earliest possible date for President Yoon's ruling is later this week. The Constitutional Court typically rules on constitutional complaints and other general cases on the last Thursday of each month, which would be the 28th this month.

President Yoon Sukyeol is delivering his final statement at the 11th impeachment trial hearing held at the Constitutional Court in Jongno-gu, Seoul on February 25. Photo by Yonhap News

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The Constitutional Court previously stated that it would "give top priority to President Yoon's case." However, this has not been kept, for reasons that have not been disclosed but are believed to be complex. A Constitutional Court official said, "It is not impossible to issue rulings twice a week or on consecutive days," adding, "Although rare, this is the first time so many impeachment cases have been filed, so precedent is not very meaningful."

◆If Lee Jaemyung's Appeal Also Results in Disqualification, What Will the Supreme Court Do?

Last November, Lee was sentenced to one year in prison with a two-year suspended sentence in the first trial. If this is confirmed, he will not be able to run for president.

Jae Myung Lee, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea

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Previously, the Supreme Court sent a directive to all courts nationwide to observe the so-called "6-3-3 rule," requiring election law cases to be decided within six months at the first trial, three months at the second, and three months at the third. This is also a declaration by the Supreme Court to adhere to the "three months for the third trial" rule. Accordingly, the Supreme Court's decision on Lee's third trial must come before June 26. If the Constitutional Court decides to remove President Yoon from office, a presidential election must be held within 60 days, which would overlap with Lee's appeal process and the election schedule. Political turmoil is inevitable.