On the evening of the 1st (local time), Iran launched a large number of ballistic missiles targeting Israel. Israel immediately warned of retaliatory action, and concerns over an escalating conflict in the Middle East remain high. As the crisis in the Middle East intensifies, international oil prices surged by over 5% at one point during the session.

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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced in a statement that "ballistic missiles were fired at key military and security targets in the heart of the occupied territories (Israel)." This comes about five months after Iran launched missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory last April. The IRGC described this missile launch as retaliation and self-defense for the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah, and Abbas Nilforushan, IRGC deputy operations commander.

Previously, Iran had warned of strong retaliation against Israel immediately after Haniyeh, who visited Iran at the end of July, was assassinated. It is analyzed that Iran executed its retaliation as Israel recently expanded its frontlines from Gaza to include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen?countries known as the "Axis of Resistance." Notably, this attack coincided with the timing of Israel's ground military operation targeting southern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on his X (formerly Twitter) account, "Our actions will end unless the Israeli regime provokes further retaliation," but also warned, "In such a (retaliatory) scenario, our response will be even stronger." For now, Iran is refraining from further attacks, but warned that if Israel retaliates, even stronger military action will follow.

The Israeli military announced that Iran fired about 180 missiles that day. It is reported that one Palestinian was killed and several others injured by missile debris in the West Bank during the airstrike. According to foreign media including CNN, citing local sources, Iran used its domestically produced 'Fateh-1 hypersonic missile' for the first time in this attack. The New York Times (NYT) described it as "an intense bombardment that forced millions of Israelis to take shelter for over an hour," and evaluated the attack as "the peak of the Middle East crisis, which began after Israel deployed ground troops to Lebanon."

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Israel immediately warned of retaliation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security meeting that night, downplaying the attack by saying, "Iran's attack failed", but also warning, "Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay the price". He added, "Just as Israel's other enemies in Gaza (Hamas), Lebanon (Hezbollah), and elsewhere have learned, Iran will soon learn a painful lesson."

[Image source= Xinhua News Agency]

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Accordingly, concerns are mounting that the already tense situation in the Middle East could deteriorate further. Major foreign media, including CNN, analyzed that the scale of Iran's attack was twice that of last April and, with no prior warning, has heightened regional tensions. It is also assessed that Israel, which responded in a limited manner last April due to pressure from the US and other Western countries, may raise the level of its response this time.

CNN reported, "Statements from Israeli officials today suggest that the next response could be even stronger," and added, "The international community is concerned that Israel may decide to attack some of Iran's nuclear facilities." The outlet noted, "Last April, Israel refrained from such a decision due to concerns about Hezbollah's movements," and added, "With Hezbollah's leader now dead, this consideration will likely weigh less in Israel's calculations."

US President Joe Biden, who reaffirmed his support for Israel, said, "(Iran's) attack was repelled and appears to have been ineffective," and stated that he would speak with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Former Israeli intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz said, "Tensions are rising to the point where it is difficult to predict the end," and diagnosed, "Israel's response will trigger another response from Iran."

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As the Middle East crisis intensified, markets were shaken. Even before Iran's missile attack, a White House official's statement that "an attack appears imminent" was confirmed, causing the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "fear gauge of Wall Street," to soar to the 20 level, and international oil prices surged. Although international oil prices spiked by over 5% at one point during the session, the increase was pared back after it was confirmed that Israel's damage was less than expected. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery closed at $69.83 per barrel, up $1.66 (2.44%) from the previous session. All three major New York stock indices closed lower as well.