"Should You Buy Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Now? Analysis Turns Question Marks into Exclamation Points [Weekend Money]"

Hana Securities' "6,000-Point Survival Strategy" Report

"Long-Term Semiconductor Contracts Need to Be Reinterpreted"

Analyzed as an Industry Linked to the AI Revolution,

Not Just a Simple Cyclical Recovery Sector

An analysis suggests that the domestic semiconductor industry should not be interpreted merely from a cyclical perspective, but rather as a key infrastructure within the new investment paradigm centered on artificial intelligence (AI).

On May 1, Hana Securities stated in its report, "6,000-Point Survival Strategy: Everyone Is Only Watching the End of the Cycle," that the significance of long-term semiconductor contracts should be reinterpreted, making this point clear.

Until now, the market has viewed the semiconductor industry through the lens of cycles. The main variables were when inventories peaked, when the average selling price (ASP) turned downward, and when profit estimates stabilized at lower levels. In other words, the semiconductor industry was considered a cyclical sector sensitive to economic trends.

The report analyzes that the semiconductor industry is not just a simple cyclical recovery sector, but one intrinsically linked to the AI revolution. AI has yet to be defined as a fixed industry. This ecosystem includes not only semiconductors but also data centers, servers, memory, networks, and devices, all interconnected. What matters more than the end of the semiconductor cycle is how long the structural demand for semiconductors can be sustained.

Therefore, there is a growing call for a reassessment of long-term semiconductor contracts. In the past, long-term supply contracts were mainly about addressing supply-demand imbalances. Moving forward, however, these contracts will function as strategic mechanisms for securing stable supply in the midst of technological hegemony competition. From the perspective of customer companies, securing high-performance memory and advanced packaging in a stable manner is a key competitive edge.

The report also suggests that the valuation standards for the semiconductor industry need to change. In terms of semiconductor exports, volume used to be the most important factor. If volume decreased, it was interpreted as a signal of industry improvement due to price hikes following inventory reductions. However, now both price and volume need to be considered simultaneously. With the explosive growth in AI demand, it is possible for both semiconductor prices and volumes to increase at the same time.

Kim Dooun, a researcher at Hana Securities, stated, "The question the market should be asking about semiconductors is not 'When will the cycle end?' but 'Will it last longer than before?' He added, "When everyone is looking at the end of the cycle, the market may begin to reflect the start of a structural revaluation first."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.