[Reporter’s Notebook] What Matters More Than the 100GW Renewable Energy Blueprint

Declaration to Expand Renewable Energy

But Grid Capacity, Public Acceptance, and Industrial Competitiveness Remain Unresolved Challenges

The government has officially declared renewable energy as a "main power source" in an effort to overcome the energy security crisis triggered by the Middle East war. The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment's "First Basic Plan for Renewable Energy" includes securing 100GW of renewable energy by 2030 and raising the share of renewables in power generation to over 30% by 2035. The plan also involves creating gigawatt-scale, large solar power complexes in the Seoul metropolitan area, Chungcheong, and Gangwon regions, as well as fostering renewable energy as a "second semiconductor and shipbuilding industry."

It is difficult to object to the overall direction. Given the overlapping circumstances of the Middle East crisis, RE100, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and the surge in electricity demand driven by the AI era, expanding renewable energy is no longer a matter of choice but a practical necessity. The government's awareness that "how much you reduce imports" is now more important than "how cheaply you import" is also correct.

However, as always, the real issue is "implementation." When looking beyond the ambitious blueprint, there are quite a few areas that raise doubts. While the targets have reached record highs, the details and practical measures for making them a reality are lacking in many places.

For renewable energy, securing transmission and distribution networks to deliver the electricity generated to consumers is more important than simply building power plants. Currently, the Seoul metropolitan area and some parts of Honam are already nearing grid saturation. The government itself acknowledged in this plan that "insufficient grid capacity is the biggest obstacle to expanding renewable energy." Nevertheless, explanations regarding how much grid needs to be built, at what speed, and who will pay for it are surprisingly lacking. This is an issue that will require tens of trillions of won, but the most difficult questions have been postponed.

The cost issue is similar. The government says it will drastically lower the cost per kilowatt-hour of solar and wind power, but this is not easy. The domestic cost of renewable energy generation is 2.2 times higher for solar and 3.2 times higher for onshore wind compared to the global average. This is due to a combination of permitting costs, community acceptance costs, and distortions in the price of Renewable Energy Certificates (REC). It is uncertain whether merely expanding "long-term fixed-price contracts" will change the situation in the short term. This is why the industry feels burdened by the government setting numerical targets for generation costs in advance.

The more fundamental problem is the industrial strategy itself. The government says it will foster renewable energy as a second semiconductor and shipbuilding industry, but the reality in the domestic market is moving in the opposite direction. Korean companies are increasingly being pushed out by cheap Chinese imports. According to the government's plan, the share of domestically produced solar modules dropped from 72.5% in 2018 to 41.6% last year. As deployment increases, there is a real possibility that market share and profits will continue to flow to foreign companies.

Korea's energy policy has long been a "history of planning." There have always been grand numbers and rosy targets. But in reality, resistance from local residents, delays in grid construction, cost burdens, and changes in administration have always derailed progress. In fact, the previous renewable energy plan also failed to meet its targets.

Thus, what really matters in this new plan is not just the "100GW" figure itself. It is about who will pay, who will take responsibility, how local residents will be persuaded, and how quickly the transmission network can be expanded. If this time too, only the numbers remain and implementation lags behind, the phrase "largest blueprint ever" may become yet another record of failure in a few years.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.