Lee Taekyu: "Jeong Cheongrae Will Face Criticism Over Responsibility", Park Wonseok: "Jung Wono Needs to Change Strategy" [Current Affairs Show]

Park Wonseok: "Jung Wonoh Must Shift from a Defensive and Passive Campaign"

Lee Taekyu: "Unifying Park Minshik and Han Donghoon Is Difficult"

Park Wonseok: "Kim Kwan-young's Candidacy Puts Jeong Cheongrae's Re-election at Risk"

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' (Mon-Fri, 4-5 PM)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Producer: Ma Yena

■ Guests: Former Justice Party Lawmaker Park Wonseok, Former People Power Party Lawmaker Lee Taekyu (May 18)

※ When quoting this article, please be sure to cite 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show.'

So Jongseop: Hello, everyone. This is So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show. Today, we are joined by former Justice Party lawmaker Park Wonseok and former People Power Party lawmaker Lee Taekyu to discuss various issues. Welcome, both of you. On the 18th, the Comprehensive Special Prosecutor booked Jangwon Hong, former First Deputy Director of the National Intelligence Service (NIS). The NIS detected that a message supporting the imposition of martial law was conveyed to the CIA in the United States and suspects that former Deputy Director Hong may have played a role in that process. Assemblyman Park, in any case, when it comes to former Deputy Director Jangwon Hong, isn't he a key figure who played a crucial role during the period of martial law and the impeachment proceedings, as he was the first to release the so-called counterintelligence arrest list of politicians?

Comprehensive Special Prosecutor Books Former NIS First Deputy Director Jangwon Hong

Park Wonseok: That's right. During the impeachment phase, he testified in the Constitutional Court's impeachment trial, testified again during the National Assembly's investigation, and also actively cooperated with the special prosecutor's investigation, playing a significant role in the impeachment of Yoon Seok-yeol. We all remember this. He also gave vivid testimony that he received direct instructions from former President Yoon Seok-yeol to cooperate with the Defense Security Command, listened to the arrest list from Commander Yeo Inhyeong, but gave up writing it down midway and said, "This isn't right." Given the actions of former Deputy Director Hong, the fact that he has been booked on charges of participating in major insurrection-related duties does not necessarily mean he is being charged, but it is unexpected and shocking.

We can infer that after Yoon Seok-yeol initiated the December 3 insurrection, he sent external messages to justify and legitimize the insurrection to our allies with whom we have diplomatic relations, especially the United States, attempting to cover up the true nature of the situation and manipulate the message as though this was an inevitable martial law to suppress pro-North leftist forces running rampant domestically. We all suspected this was the case.

In that process, the foreign affairs and national security teams became involved. As the second special prosecutor's investigation began, former Policy Chief Shin Wonsik and Kim Taeho, the First Deputy Chief of the National Security Office, have already been booked and summoned for questioning. It appears that not only through those channels, but also through the NIS channel, they attempted this at the same time, and now Hong Jangwon is under suspicion of involvement. Because of his position as the First Deputy Director of the NIS, he has been booked to investigate whether there is any substance to the allegations. It is not yet clear whether he took any proactive actions in the process. It is somewhat difficult to understand how he could have participated in major insurrection-related duties and then given contrary testimony or filed complaints afterward. If that were the case, wouldn't there have been internal objections within the NIS at the time? Still, the special prosecutor must have found something to book him, right? We need to keep a close watch on this.

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Lee Taekyu: Based solely on the announcement, it is extremely difficult to conclude whether there is or isn’t any criminal liability. It needs to be clarified whether it’s a personal issue regarding Deputy Director Hong or if he was booked as part of a broader investigation into major NIS executives. Nevertheless, according to reports, after the imposition of martial law, Director Cho Taeyong held a department heads meeting and an executive meeting at the NIS. If such meetings were held, there must have been discussions about follow-up measures regarding martial law. The investigation will reveal what was discussed at those meetings and what roles were assigned to each department head or executive, and how those roles were carried out.

However, if such a meeting took place and roles were distributed, and if, regardless of whether he personally supported martial law, he simply performed institutionally assigned duties as an executive, then this could also give rise to criminal liability. So, it is necessary to examine whether such factors exist.If he attempted to induce or request a declaration of support for martial law from the U.S. government via the CIA, that would constitute a significant insurrection-related duty. Whether the circumstances truly warrant such suspicion remains to be seen.

Special Prosecutor Detects Post-Martial Law NIS Meetings Led by Former Director Cho Taeyong

So Jongseop: If Director Cho Taeyong held the meetings, doesn't that mean there could be more revelations about the NIS in the upcoming second comprehensive special prosecutor investigation?

Park Wonseok: Well, since servers have been seized and the investigation is focusing on these allegations, it's hard to rule out that possibility. Director Cho Taeyong has already been indicted for receiving a mission from former President Yoon on the day martial law was imposed, so it may not stop there. In fact, in the case of the National Security Office, Shin Wonsik and Kim Taeho were not targets in the first special prosecutor’s investigation. But in the second investigation, they are now suspected of involvement in the post-hoc justification and legitimation of martial law, especially in relation to foreign affairs. Allegations that the National Security Office and the NIS performed major insurrection-related duties are highly sensitive because they involve foreign relations.If the NIS as an organization was systematically involved, that raises a whole different set of issues for an intelligence agency. This is not a simple case. It could be a crisis of a different kind for the NIS as an organization, not just a matter of a few senior officials going rogue.

Jangwon Hong, former First Deputy Director of the National Intelligence Service, appeared as a witness and spoke at the fifth hearing of President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment trial held on February 4 last year at the Constitutional Court in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by the Constitutional Court

Lee Taekyu: The key point to watch is that the NIS is supposed to cooperate with the CIA in intelligence sharing.The level and nature of intelligence cooperation are very different, and it's unlikely that contact was made just to convey the mere fact of martial law. So what kind of cooperation, if any, existed between South Korea and the U.S., or between the intelligence agencies, at the time of martial law? Or was there something for which cooperation needed to be requested? These aspects need to be investigated further. While it’s uncertain how much will come to light, since former Deputy Director Hong is now under suspicion beyond what ordinary citizens could have expected, I think it would be better to reveal the facts to the public before the investigation proceeds further.

So Jongseop: Former Daegu Mayor Hong Junpyo has, as many of you have seen, been sending out a surprisingly large number of messages recently.He has mentioned the potential for victory for Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate Jung Wono, Daegu mayoral candidate Kim Bookyum, and Busan Bukgap Democratic Party candidate Ha Jungwoo. Previously, he even had a luncheon with President Lee Jaemyung.How do you assess former Mayor Hong Junpyo's recent activities?

Hong Junpyo’s Support for Jung Wono Suggests Desire to Return to Public Office

Lee Taekyu: I believe former Mayor Hong Junpyo definitely wants to take on a high-level public office in the Lee Jaemyung administration. At the very least, having lunch with the president, declaring support for candidate Kim Bookyum, and now backing candidate Jung Wono show that he hopes to play a role in the Lee Jaemyung administration. In that context, he would feel the need to make statements or take actions that benefit the ruling party’s candidates in the current local elections.

However, linking Jung Wono's adult entertainment venue violence case to his own “pig aphrodisiac” case, in my view, is a misstep. Even if the intention is to discourage excessive negative campaigning, the phrase “pig aphrodisiac” is highly negative for Mayor Hong’s own public image. As for Jung Wono’s adult entertainment venue assault, regardless of the fact that it happened 30 years ago, it inevitably casts a negative light. So did this really help candidate Jung Wono? I don’t think so.

Park Wonseok: Candidate Jung Wono seems to think it helped. He told the People Power Party to “have the dignity of Mayor Hong.” He must have liked it to say so. But the People Power Party is responding vehemently, including candidate Han Donghoon.

So Jongseop: He called him a “deserter.”

Former Daegu Mayor Hong Jun-pyo recently posted on his social media positively evaluating candidates Kim Boo-kyum, Jung Won-oh, and Ha Jung-woo. Former Mayor Hong returning from the United States via Incheon International Airport Terminal 1 in June last year. Photo by Yonhap News

Hard to Attain a Position of Real Responsibility

Park Wonseok: It seems the strong reaction is in response to predictions that Han Donghoon will lose the Busan election. In reality, former Mayor Hong Junpyo is in a sort of retirement—not that he wants to retire, but that he’s being forced out. Still, he appears to want to have a role in the current administration. I don't think it will be easy, especially since there are reports that he was considered for prime minister. Hong Junpyo is someone who represented a particular faction for too long, having been a presidential candidate and party leader. It’s difficult for him to take a position of political and substantive responsibility.This is more than just broadening the party’s base.

He doesn’t have a strong regional, class, or political following. He’s something of a romantic lone swordsman. He could take on a declarative or symbolic role as an elder statesman, but it seems unlikely he’ll return to a substantive political position.

Lee Taekyu: While the opposition’s ineffectiveness is open to criticism, I think the Jung Wono camp’s mention of conservative dignity shows a lack of thought. Mayor Hong Junpyo, while principled, is not exactly a politician known for dignity.Frankly, his political style is not exemplary. I don't understand why candidate Jung Wono or his campaign would use this. As for candidate Han Donghoon, I can understand his reaction. There are also personal feelings between the two.The main argument used by the People Power Party leadership against Han Donghoon is that he's a traitor.By attacking Hong Junpyo as having left the party and “defected to North Korea,” Han Donghoon is emphasizing that he himself is not a traitor and is truly a member of the People Power Party.By attacking former Mayor Hong Junpyo, Han Donghoon wants to stress his own loyalty to the party.

So Jongseop: The Jung Wono camp advised candidate Oh Sehoon to “learn the dignity of conservatism from former party leader Hong Junpyo.”Assemblyman Park, what’s your assessment?

Jung Wono, the Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor, is speaking ahead of the agreement at the 'Seoul-Jeju Policy Agreement Ceremony' held on the 19th in front of Daehanmun at Deoksugung, Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jinhyung

Jung Wono’s Campaign Has Been Defensive and Passive, Narrowing the Gap with Oh Sehoon

Park Wonseok: Well, Mayor Hong Junpyo appears to be raising the issue that something trivial from 30 years ago is being blown out of proportion, in connection with his own “pig aphrodisiac” case. But the assault incident did happen, and regardless of the context, this is not positive for Jung Wono's image. There’s no need to keep bringing it up or making excuses.

The recent narrowing of the approval rating gap is partly due to the consolidation of conservative support, but I think the main reason is that Jung Wono's campaign has been too defensive and passive.As a challenger, he needs to run a much more aggressive campaign, but he’s boxing defensively, which is hard to understand.He should be leading the issues, but is he? Instead, he’s on the defensive over real estate issues, responding passively. He’s seen as capable, but lacks a clear vision.Other than being the ruling party candidate endorsed by the president, there’s not much aura.

This puts his campaign on the back foot, which is reflected in the narrowing approval gap. This leads to candidate comparison. The structure is favorable, butthe warning lights are flashing.Seoul is very different from Gyeonggi Province. In the last presidential election, the combined votes for Kim Moonsoo and Lee Junseok were lower in Seoul than the combined votes for Kwon Younggil and Lee Jaemyung. That’s the nature of Seoul. Therefore, the campaign strategy must be reviewed and the direction corrected—he must be much more aggressive and proactive.

So Jongseop: Let’s also discuss the by-election. Many believe that unifying the candidates for Busan Bukgap will be difficult.

Unification Between Park Minshik and Han Donghoon Unlikely; Watch the Movements of Busan Lawmakers

Lee Taekyu: In the case of Busan Bukgap, if unification fails, Han Donghoon and Park Minshik must find a way to win in a three-way race.Is it possible? This is a region where Assemblyman Jeon Jaesu has influence.Overall, the election environment is not favorable—the district, the structure, and the circumstances are all challenging.To beat candidate Ha Jungwoo, there must at least be a two-way race within the margin of error.It needs to be a “two-strong, one-weak” structure, not “two-strong, one-middle.” That way, as conservative voters generally want candidate unification, if the party or the candidates themselves can’t agree, voters must create the situation. For that, one side must clearly pull ahead.

According to today’s news, 14 Busan lawmakers gathered and had a heated debate. This Busan mayoral election and the Bukgap by-election will affect their own races in the next general election. The unification of the Bukgap candidates is closely tied to the mayoral race.If the field remains split, the mayoral election also becomes tough.Because they are intertwined, I think Mayor Park Hyungjun may be the one who most wants candidate unification in Bukgap.

So Jongseop: Looking at the current trends, candidate Han Donghoon seems to be catching up with Ha Jungwoo, while the gap with Park Minshik is widening.

Independent candidate Donghun Han, running for the Busan Bukgap by-election for the National Assembly, held a press conference to announce his campaign pledges on the morning of the 19th at his election office in Buk-gu, Busan. Photo by Yonhap News

Park Wonseok: Is the method of unification that both camps agreed on even possible? It doesn’t look easy.Candidate Park Minshik is firmly opposed. He is looking at the entire political landscape of Busan, including the general election two years from now. For him, this is his last stand—he has nowhere else to go after this. That’s why it’s hard for him to step aside, even if he loses this time. He is probably also considering how to make a comeback in the next general election, so agreeing to unify is not easy.

Candidate Han Donghoon seems to hope that natural consolidation of votes will occur through public sentiment, and is running his campaign accordingly.For that, two conditions are necessary: one is to stunt candidate Ha Jungwoo’s expansion and push his support below 40 percent, or around 35 percent, but is that possible? There are no decisive flaws, and lately, Ha Jungwoo seems to be adapting to the campaign.He may, in fact, have room to grow.

No Authority Within People Power Party to Force Candidate Unification

The other condition is to push candidate Park Minshik’s support below 20 percent, or even 15 percent, but that’s also difficult. He’s from this area and has been elected here twice, so he has staying power.Even if he can’t win, he has enough support to be a spoiler. So nothing is easy, and everyone is feeling the pressure—Busan lawmakers, Mayor Park Hyungjun, and others. The problem for the People Power Party is that there is no one inside the party with enough authority to mediate, control the candidates’ centrifugal forces, and enforce unification. The party leader has no authority, the leadership has no authority, the elders have no authority, and even the so-called reformists who oppose the leadership have no authority. It could end up being all talk. In a three-way race, Han Donghoon will not be able to win.

So Jongseop: Traditionally, Jeonbuk was a region where the Democratic Party candidate could win without much effort, but with independent candidate Kim Gwanyoung entering the race, it has become a battleground—so much so that the term “hotly contested” is now used. Floor Leader Han Byungdo of the Democratic Party has visited the area three times recently; it’s become an urgent situation for them.

Independent candidate Kim Gwanyoung, former Governor of Jeonbuk Special Self-Governing Province, is holding a press conference to announce his campaign promises at the Jeonbuk Provincial Council on the 13th. Photo by Yonhap News

So Jongseop: If Democratic Party candidate Lee Wontak loses to independent candidate Kim Gwanyoung,wouldn’t that significantly damage Jeong Cheongrae’s leadership?

If Lee Wontak Loses to Kim Gwanyoung, Jeong Cheongrae Will Face Criticism Over Candidate Nominations

Lee Taekyu: There’s no avoiding a blow to his leadership, and criticism over the party nomination process will follow.The perception is that this happened because he tried to force his own faction’s candidate.Some are even saying it’s a case of “cutting off a lump only to attach another.” Kim Gwanyoung is not a candidate from the People Power Party.He’s running as an independent but is friendly to the Democratic Party, so local voters don’t seem to have strong objections. It’s a surprising result. But whether this trend can continue is another matter.The challenge for Kim Gwanyoung is whether he can withstand the tendency of voters to support the party they usually vote for. At least, there is some sympathy for Kim—

He was unexpectedly caught up in controversy for giving a taxi fare, and people question whether that warranted expulsion. Meanwhile, candidate Lee Wontak also faced allegations of having someone else pay for his meal, so why was he not sanctioned? Evaluations of their governance are not particularly bad. Kim is viewed as having an advantage in terms of personal qualities; accusations of participating in major insurrection-related duties were dropped. The Lee camp had previously made a major issue of this, and Lee said he would take responsibility if found guilty, which has been widely circulated online.Objectively, the electoral environment is not so bad for Kim, but the Honam region is a Democratic Party stronghold.If the Democratic Party loses a major local government post, it would be shocking. As the election moves into the second half, I think Democratic Party support will consolidate.

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Park Wonseok: From the primary onward, the atmosphere was like a prelude to the party convention. As things heated up, Governor Kim Gwanyoung was expelled over the “money envelope” scandal, while Assemblyman Lee Wontak was cleared by the party’s ethics committee. Of course, Governor Kim made mistakes, but were they that serious? In the end, it appears Jeong Cheongrae sacrificed Kim to advance his own political interests and put his ally Lee Wontak in the candidate spot—an unfair move that, according to Governor Kim, disregards the voters of Jeonbuk. That claim seems to be resonating, judging by opinion polls.

Moreover, Kim clearly has the upper hand in terms of personal qualities. Assemblyman Lee Wontak has low name recognition, even as a local lawmaker, and there are doubts about his suitability as governor. Lawmaker Ahn Hoyoung staged a hunger strike demanding reinvestigation, but it didn’t succeed. Ahn has joined the campaign, but it is questionable how committed his side is. The party is divided. In Jeonbuk, the proportion of party members among voters is higher than in Jeonnam.So, it’s possible that an upset could occur. If that happens, it will be a major obstacle for Jeong Cheongrae’s leadership as the party convention approaches in August.

Kim Gwanyoung Has an Advantage in Personal Qualities, Will Give His All as His Political Life Is at Stake

Before the election, Prime Minister Kim Minseok moved his address to Iksan.I see this as a deliberate move to make Jeonbuk his political base, which also ties into the network with Governor Kim Gwanyoung. This may be why Jeong Cheongrae took such a hard line. This is a complicated issue with many intertwined problems. Kim Gwanyoung has said, “I will not return to the Democratic Party as long as Jeong Cheongrae is in charge.” That means he intends to win, block Jeong’s path, and then rejoin the party.

Jeong Cheong-rae, the Chief Co-Chairperson of the Democratic Party of Korea, attended the launching ceremony of the Jeonbuk Special Self-Governing Province Party Election Committee held on the 17th at JJ Art Hall, Jeonju University, Jeonbuk. He posed for a commemorative photo holding hands with Lee Wontak, candidate for Governor of Jeonbuk Province, and Ahn Hoyoung, Member of the National Assembly and Co-Chairperson of the Jeonbuk Provincial Party Election Committee. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

This is a fight for Kim Gwanyoung’s political survival. If he loses, he cannot return to the Democratic Party. It would be his second defection, and the party has already announced he is subject to permanent expulsion. If he wins, things may change, but if he loses, it’s over. He will give it everything he has. During the nomination and by-election process, internal Democratic Party strife in Honam has been intense, and there is a possibility that an upset in Jeonbuk could lead to unexpected results elsewhere.If so, the party convention in August could unfold very differently than anticipated.

Regardless of Kim Gwanyoung’s Election Outcome, Jeong Cheongrae Will Face Criticism Over Leadership

So Jongseop: Regardless of whether Kim wins or loses, isn’t there a warning sign for Jeong Cheongrae ahead of the August party convention?

Lee Taekyu: If Kim wins, it would be a near-fatal blow. Even if the party achieves results in Yeongnam, they would be overshadowed. Even barely holding on in Jeonbuk, the question “Who shook the Democratic Party’s stronghold?” will persist, and criticism over responsibility will continue regardless of the outcome.

So Jongseop: That wraps up our discussion of various issues with former Justice Party lawmaker Park Wonseok and former People Power Party lawmaker Lee Taekyu. Thank you both.

Park Wonseok · Lee Taekyu: Thank you.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.