[Good Morning Market] Tech Stocks Plunge on New York Exchange... KOSPI Expected to See Volatile Session

30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Tops 5.1%
Semiconductor Stocks Including Nvidia Decline Sharply
Samsung Electronics Union Strike Set for the 21st

Last week, the New York stock market ended lower due to concerns over inflation triggered by high oil prices and a sharp rise in global bond yields. In this context, the KOSPI is also expected to experience a volatile session as it seeks direction.

On the 15th, an employee is working in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

On the 15th (local time) in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,526.17, down 537.29 points (-1.07%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 Index ended at 7,408.50, down 92.74 points (-1.24%), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,225.14, dropping 410.08 points (-1.54%) from the previous close. In particular, the decline in semiconductor stocks, which had been leading the bull market, was notable. Nvidia (-4.42%), Micron (-6.69%), Intel (-6.18%), and AMD (-5.69%) all fell sharply.

Concerns over inflation and soaring bond yields led to selling pressure on tech stocks. According to electronic trading platform Tradeweb, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 14 basis points (1bp=0.01 percentage point) from the previous session to 4.60% by the close of the New York market. The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries jumped 9 basis points to 4.08%, while the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries climbed 11 basis points to 5.12%.

Brent crude futures closed at $109.26 per barrel, up 3.4% from the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled at $105.42 per barrel, rising 4.2%. Amid the U.S.-Iran war, the surge in energy prices and inflation indicators fueled inflation fears, while prolonged concerns over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz further stoked these anxieties. The fact that U.S. President Donald Trump held a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding the Iran situation without achieving any concrete results also heightened worries.

This week, Nvidia's earnings announcement and the possibility of a strike at Samsung Electronics are expected to determine the direction of the domestic stock market. The focus will be on whether Nvidia's revenue (consensus: $78 billion) and gross margin (consensus: 75.0%), to be announced on the 20th (local time), will exceed expectations. In addition, it is important to see whether future guidance will reflect sales to China following the U.S.-China summit's approval of H200 sales to China. Furthermore, the strength of demand for Blackwell (B200), the detailed mass production schedule for the next-generation Rubin (R100), and the selection of suppliers—all of which will be addressed during the conference call—are directly linked to the earnings outlook for domestic semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

The Samsung Electronics labor union has demanded special incentives for the semiconductor (DS) division and the removal of the cap on excess profit incentives (OPI). After negotiations broke down, the union announced a strike planned for the 21st. The market anticipates that, if an agreement is reached, increased labor costs will become a burden, while a strike would raise concerns over production disruptions. The risk of disruptions in semiconductor production could also negatively affect overall investor sentiment in the domestic stock market.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "There may be some technical buying at the start of the week due to perceptions of an excessive short-term decline, but the market is expected to remain dependent on macro uncertainties this week." He added, "The key point will be whether Nvidia's earnings results scheduled for later in the week can improve market sentiment, especially for semiconductor stocks." Han further commented, "While it is true that existing factors driving market gains—such as improving profit momentum and the potential for increased investment in artificial intelligence (AI)—remain intact, it is also accurate that the rapid pace of share price increases itself has been a short-term risk factor."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.