Slight Increase in Oil Tankers Passing Through Hormuz... Normalization Still Distant

Four Oil Tankers Carrying 2 Million Barrels Each Pass Through

"New Tankers Unlikely to Return"… Uncertainty Remains

There is analysis suggesting that the increase in the number of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) transporting non-sanctioned crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz is providing limited relief to international oil prices. However, the number still falls far short of pre-Iran war levels.

According to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg on May 14 (local time), four tankers carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil each have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since May 10.

Ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Of these four tankers, three loaded crude oil in Iraq, while the remaining one is transporting cargo originating from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a decrease of about 1 billion barrels in global crude oil supply. Bloomberg reported that while crude exports from countries other than Iran have increased slightly, exports of Iranian crude have plummeted since the U.S. imposed a maritime blockade against Iran.

Earlier this month, Iran established a procedure requiring ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to consult in advance with the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA)." The United States has been blocking Iranian ports at the entrance to the Gulf of Oman. Since then, some vessels have managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz through intergovernmental agreements.

The previous day, China’s Yuan Hua Hu became the third Chinese VLCC to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Middle Eastern oil companies such as Saudi Aramco Trading and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the UAE have reportedly been transporting crude through the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade, and the passage of Large Very Large Gas Carriers (LVGCs) is also increasing. Last month, Mercuria Energy Group announced that it had succeeded in moving its vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, though it did not disclose the specific methods used.

Recently, some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with their satellite signals turned off. Given that these ships turn their signals back on after leaving the Middle East region, the actual number of ships passing through could be even higher. Over the past seven days, a total of 38 ships—including tankers—have traversed the Strait of Hormuz in both directions, representing about a threefold increase compared to the period from May 3 to 9.

However, compared to pre-Iran war levels, when about 20 tankers of various sizes passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, the current level remains significantly lower. Moreover, even if ships succeed in passing through the Strait, the risks remain high, and it is uncertain whether they will attempt to return to the Middle East in the future.

Georgios Sakellariou, a cargo analyst at Signal Maritime, stated, "There is indeed an increase, but the scale is still too small to make a significant impact," adding, "The biggest problem is that even if all the tankers currently inside the strait manage to leave, new vessels are unlikely to enter for the time being."

On this day at the ICE Futures Exchange, July Brent crude oil futures closed at $105.72 per barrel, up 0.1% from the previous session. June West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $101.7 per barrel, up 0.2% from the previous session.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.