Import Prices Turn Down After 10 Months, "Impact of Previous Month's Surge"

Impact of Semiconductor Price Increase: April Export Price Index Hits 187.40
Highest Level in 28 Years and 1 Month Since March 1998 (196.01)

The import price index, which had surged the previous month, turned downward in April. As international oil prices, which had soared due to the war in the Middle East, retreated from the previous month’s level, the upward trend in import prices that had continued for nine months has eased. However, the index still remains more than 20% higher than the same period last year, leading experts to say it is too soon to conclude that a downward trend has taken hold.

Import Prices Decline for the First Time in 10 Months... Still 20.2% Higher Year-on-Year

According to the "Export-Import Price Index and Trade Index (Preliminary) for April 2026" released by the Bank of Korea on May 15, last month's import price index, based on the Korean won, was 168.12 (2020=100), down 2.3% from the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, it was up 20.2%.

The decline was mainly driven by mining products as international oil prices, which had risen sharply the previous month, fell in April. The average monthly price of Dubai crude oil dropped 17.8% from $128.52 per barrel in March to $105.70 in April. However, this is still 56.0% higher than in the same month last year. The average monthly KRW/USD exchange rate inched up by 0.1% from 1,486.64 won in March to 1,487.39 won in April.

By use, raw materials, led by mining products such as crude oil, fell by 9.7% from the previous month. Despite the decline in international oil prices, intermediate goods rose by 2.1% from the previous month due to continued supply instability of raw materials from the Middle East, which pushed up prices for coal, petroleum products, and primary metal products. Capital goods and consumer goods rose by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, from the previous month. The import price index based on contract currency, excluding exchange rate effects, fell 2.4% from the previous month and rose 17.2% from a year earlier.

Analysts say it is difficult to predict the situation for import prices in May. Lee Moonhee, Head of the Price Statistics Team at the Bank of Korea's Economic Statistics Department, explained, "Looking at the trends in oil prices and exchange rates so far this month, as of the 13th, the average monthly price of Dubai crude oil is down 3.1% from last month's average, and the KRW/USD exchange rate is down 1.2% during the same period, which so far are downward factors compared to the previous month." He added, "However, with the war in the Middle East continuing for more than two months, the instability in raw material supply is likely to persist for the time being, which will act as an upward factor."

There is also an expectation that upward pressure on consumer prices will persist. Although it eased in April, import prices had risen for nine consecutive months through March, and if the war continues, the effects of high oil prices and supply disruptions for raw materials could spread across the economy. The future trend in consumer prices will likely depend on the progress of the Middle East war and the effectiveness of government price stabilization measures.

Containers are piled up at Pyeongtaek Port, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Semiconductor Price Increases Drive Export Price Index to Highest Since March 1998

Last month, the export price index rose 7.1% from the previous month to 187.40. Compared to the same month last year, it jumped 40.8%. This is the first time in 28 years and 1 month since March 1998 (196.01) that the export price index has reached 187.40. The year-on-year increase of 40.8% is also the highest since the 57.1% rise in March 1998.

The increase was led by computers, electronic and optical devices, and chemical products. In particular, computers, electronic and optical devices, which were significantly affected by rising semiconductor prices, reached 198.30—the highest level in 15 years and 8 months since August 2010 (201.77). By item, the price of DRAM jumped 25.0% from the previous month, and computer memory devices soared 71.4%. Manufactured goods rose 7.1% from the previous month, driven by these increases in computers, electronics, optical devices, and chemical products. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery products saw a 10.1% increase from the previous month in frozen seafood export prices, due to factors such as decreased fish catches, increased demand, and higher maritime freight rates. The export price index based on contract currency rose 7.0% from the previous month and 36.9% from a year earlier.

Export prices are expected to continue to be heavily influenced by semiconductor prices in May as well. Lee said, "In the mid- to long-term, demand for semiconductors related to artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to remain strong, so semiconductor prices are likely to stay robust. However, monthly price fluctuations are uncertain, so we will need to monitor them closely."

The export volume index, which shows changes in export and import trends, rose 12.4% year-on-year, led by computers, electronic and optical devices. Lee explained, "Computers, electronic and optical devices continued to see strong growth due to increased demand from expanded AI investment. However, the overall increase in export volume was smaller than the previous month, as exports of petroleum products declined due to export restrictions and other measures related to the Middle East war." The export value index surged 50.2% during the same period. Meanwhile, the import volume index fell 0.1% year-on-year, as mining products, coal, and petroleum products decreased. The import value index rose 16.8%. The net barter terms of trade index and income terms of trade index rose 14.3% and 28.5%, respectively, from a year earlier.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.