[Market ING] 'Record Highs' for KOSPI, All Eyes on Inflation After Earnings

This Week's Expected KOSPI Range: 6,900–7,800 Points

Last week, the KOSPI once again reached a historic high. After breaking through the 7,000-point mark, it surpassed the 7,500-point level during intraday trading. This week, the market is expected to focus on inflation indicators and attempt to firmly establish itself above 7,500 points.

Yonhap News Agency

Last week, the KOSPI rose by 13.63%, while the KOSDAQ gained 1.29%. The KOSPI maintained its upward momentum throughout the week and settled above the 7,400-point level. Jae Won Lee, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, analyzed, "Last week, the KOSPI climbed more than 13%, continuing its record-breaking trend. The driving force behind the rise was the large-cap semiconductor stocks, particularly Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Expectations for expanded investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and improvements in the memory semiconductor market led the index higher. In particular, following earnings announcements from major U.S. big tech companies, the trend of increased AI capital expenditures (CAPEX) was reaffirmed, resulting in a global revaluation of the semiconductor sector as a whole."

The semiconductor sector is leading the index's rise. Jeong Hwan Na, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "With the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—the top two companies by market capitalization—surging, the KOSPI touched the 7,500-point range. Strong expectations for earnings growth driven by robust memory demand are fueling the stock price increase. Last week, hyperscalers further raised their CAPEX forecasts, and according to South Korea's export data released on May 1, semiconductor exports recorded a triple-digit growth rate for the fourth consecutive month in April. In addition, AMD, an AI semiconductor company, announced strong first-quarter results and second-quarter guidance that exceeded market expectations, which also contributed to the sharp rise in domestic semiconductor stocks."

This semiconductor rally is considered significant because it is based on upward revisions in earnings estimates. Lee commented, "The 2026 KOSPI net income consensus (the average forecast by securities firms) surpassed 600 trillion won two weeks ago and has since been raised rapidly, now approaching 700 trillion won. Most of the earnings growth is being driven by the IT and semiconductor sectors, and the 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is showing a historically steep upward trend."

In contrast, the KOSDAQ has been relatively sluggish. While the KOSPI advanced more than 13%, the KOSDAQ's increase was limited to just over 1%. Lee explained, "The KOSDAQ is facing a relatively unfavorable environment. The current market is structured so that both earnings and liquidity are concentrated in large-cap stocks, resulting in weaker earnings momentum for the KOSDAQ compared to the KOSPI. While policy momentum remains valid, it is important to note that a large-cap-centered market is likely to persist for the time being," he added.

With the earnings season nearly over, the market is expected to turn its attention to inflation. This week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is scheduled to be released. Na commented, "Although the index has surged in the short term, the current rally is based on improved earnings forecasts. After the earnings season, the next driver for further gains will be whether inflation stabilizes. If the U.S. April CPI, to be announced on May 12, matches the consensus of a 2.7% year-on-year increase, the market is likely to react positively." NH Investment & Securities suggested this week's expected KOSPI band is between 6,900 and 7,800 points.

This week's major events include the release of South Korea's export figures for May 1–10 and China's April CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) on May 11. The U.S. April CPI will be published on May 12, followed by the U.S. April PPI on May 13. U.S. April retail sales will be announced on May 14, and on May 15, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's May manufacturing index and U.S. April industrial production figures will be released.

Corporate earnings announcements will also continue. In the U.S., Constellation Energy will release results on May 11, and Cisco and Applied Materials are scheduled for May 14. In Korea, S-Oil, Lotte Shopping, and Samsung Securities will announce earnings on May 11; Mirae Asset Securities, CJ CheilJedang, KT, Shinsegae, and Pearl Abyss on May 12; Emart, Com2uS, Hanatour, CJ Logistics, and SK Innovation on May 13; and JYP Entertainment, Meritz Financial Group, Samsung Life, and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance will release first-quarter results on May 14.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.