"9,000 Points Possible" Another Bold Forecast Emerges... What Is the Biggest Risk to Watch For? [Weekend Money]

Rapid Upward Revisions in Corporate Earnings Estimates
NH Investment & Securities: “KOSPI 9,000 Is Fully Achievable”
Caution Needed Over Reduced AI Investment and Infrastructure Delays

On May 7, 2026, the current status of the domestic stock market was displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room of Hana Bank Headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, as the KOSPI surpassed 7500. Photo by Kang Jinhyung

As the KOSPI continues to break record highs without hesitation, securities firms are persistently raising their upper forecasts for the index. Amid recent projections pushing the KOSPI up to 9,000 points, some analysts have also pointed to a potential "chasm"—a temporary demand slowdown—in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry as the biggest risk factor that could limit further gains in the stock market going forward.

According to the securities industry on May 9, NH Investment & Securities recently raised its 12-month forward target for the KOSPI dramatically from 7,300 points to 9,000 points. This is the highest forecast among domestic and international brokerage houses.

Kim Byungyeon, Head of Investment Strategy at NH Investment & Securities, explained, "Although interest rates and risk premiums have risen due to the aftermath of war, the pace of corporate earnings estimate increases is even faster. After the war, core inflation remained more stable than expected, which has reassured investors."

Kim cited several factors in raising the KOSPI target: a rise in earnings per share (EPS) estimates exceeding the cost of equity (COE), stable core inflation, and the stabilization of the won-dollar exchange rate due to the activation of integrated accounts for foreign investors.

He stated, "Due to the nature of equities, future momentum is priced in earlier, and there is some discomfort about the rapid upward revisions of earnings estimates and market concentration. However, aside from concerns about the speed, we have yet to find any factors that would change the upward trend of EPS estimates," predicting that the stock market rally will continue.

However, he also warned that there are risk factors that could trigger a market correction in the future. The most notable among them is a chasm in the AI industry.

Kim emphasized, "If it turns out that AI development is not economically viable given the enormous costs, global big tech companies may reduce their investment. In addition, if AI causes major data breaches or if infrastructure development is delayed, slowing industry progress, there is a possibility that a chasm will occur."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.