"$5 Billion in Damage to U.S. Military Bases in the Middle East by Iran" - U.S. AEI

An analysis has found that, during the course of the United States-Iran war, the estimated damage inflicted by Iran on 11 U.S. military bases in the Middle East amounts to approximately $5 billion. Around 70 structures were struck.

On April 28 (local time), Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow specializing in defense strategy and budget at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), stated this in an article posted on the institute's website.

Eaglen noted, "A key question that remains for America's allies and partner nations is whether U.S. military bases still offer a net security benefit, even in a situation where U.S. ammunition stockpiles are insufficient and air defense capabilities are limited," adding, "There is a high likelihood that U.S. military installations will be relocated and that the overall U.S. presence in the Gulf region will be reduced."

The following is a summary of the main points.

The damages inflicted by the Iranian military on U.S. and allied bases in the Middle East during the weeks following the launch of "Operation Epic Fury" will have financial repercussions. Not only will the currently weakened forward deployment posture of U.S. forces change as a result, but discussions about what to rebuild will also require time and careful assessment.

After reconstruction and repairs, the U.S. military posture across Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq is likely to see base relocations and an overall reduction in the Gulf region. The core question for allies and partners is whether, even in the face of limited U.S. ammunition reserves and air defense capabilities, the U.S. bases still provide a net security benefit. How the U.S. and Gulf states answer this will affect force planning and modernization efforts.

The damage suffered by U.S. military base infrastructure in the Middle East has not been sufficiently examined in Washington. The rough estimate of total costs is $5 billion, which includes complete reconstruction, partial asset repairs, reconfiguration of facilities, and the abandonment of certain buildings or bases. This estimate goes beyond merely adding up building-by-building costs; it also applies multipliers to reflect the hidden costs that typically arise in the complex process of replacing combat-damaged infrastructure.

A significant portion of the key U.S. systems or facilities that were hit are assessed as being difficult to repair. For this reason, most are considered irreparable infrastructure, and higher costs have been assigned. In this calculation, only fixed, large, and permanent structures within U.S. bases were identified. For example, the destroyed satellite communications terminal at the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters was included, as it is an essential and permanent component for base operations. However, the damage to radar systems such as THAAD, which could amount to billions of dollars, was not included, as these are structurally fortified or not fixed in a specific location. This reflects a distinction between infrastructure and weapons or military equipment.

The AEI estimate also adjusts for the unique challenges the U.S. military faces in reconstruction after Operation Epic Fury. Given that the war has caused shortages of some materials and logistical difficulties, an additional 30% contingency was included. This covers factors such as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising fuel costs, port closures and shutdowns, as well as the destruction of some energy and data infrastructure throughout the region.

This estimate is sufficiently reasonable within the historical context, in which the cost range tends to widen as the on-site situation becomes clearer. During the height of the war on terror, from 2007 to 2011, the U.S. spent between $1 billion and $4.3 billion annually solely on overseas military construction costs. These figures are not inflation-adjusted and are intended to standardize expenditures relative to the overall economic scale. This past spending is significant because it exceeded the Pentagon's annual budget requests.

The U.S. military is no stranger to cost overruns or project scope expansions over time. Even systems built in the stable and controlled environment of the United States frequently exceed initial construction cost estimates. Supply chain bottlenecks, rising material costs, and substandard factory performance—challenges the military already faces—do not disappear when operating overseas. Rebuilding U.S. military bases after the Iran war will require enormous costs. The final bill will depend on changing circumstances and ongoing logistical issues, necessitating large-scale investment. Pentagon leadership will need to push for supplemental spending bills to cover the costs of replacing, upgrading, or modernizing bases and equipment once reconstruction begins.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.