[Bitcoin Now] "Virtual Assets Will Collapse by 2029"... Is It True?

AI Accelerates Quantum Computer Commercialization

Decrypting in 9.8 Trillion Years Becomes 9 Minutes

Slow-to-Respond Bitcoin vs. Agile Ethereum

"Defense Systems Will Determine Survival"

With Google predicting that quantum computers will be able to break existing cryptographic systems by 2029, it has become apparent that virtual assets based on blockchain are also at risk of being hacked. How quickly quantum security is adopted to counter future quantum computer attacks is expected to determine the fate of virtual assets.

"By 2029, Hacking Virtual Assets Will Be Possible... AI Could Accelerate the Timeline"

On March 30, the Google Quantum Artificial Intelligence (AI) team published a paper entitled "Responsibly Disclosing Quantum Vulnerabilities to Protect Cryptocurrencies." The core finding is that quantum computers can decrypt ECC, the mainstay of virtual asset security, with far fewer resources than previously expected. ECC stands for Elliptic Curve Cryptography, a security method using mathematical graphs called elliptic curves. For example, when creating a Bitcoin wallet, a public key (a wallet address known to everyone) and a private key (a password only you know) are generated. ECC is the technology that matches these keys and proves wallet ownership through the private key. To steal virtual assets, one would need to derive the private key from the public key. Previously, it was estimated that it would take a supercomputer 9.8 trillion years to crack a single Bitcoin key.

However, Google explained that the number of physical qubits needed for a quantum computer to decrypt ECC has dropped to fewer than 500,000, which is just one eighteenth of previous estimates. In terms of logical qubits, this amounts to 1,200 to 1,450. The time required for hacking is only 9 to 23 minutes. Considering that Bitcoin blocks are generated every 10 minutes on average, this suggests that hacking could be faster than block creation. A qubit is a unit that represents both 0 and 1 simultaneously, enabling the rapid computation of vast amounts of information. Individual quantum particles inside hardware devices are called physical qubits, but since quantum particles are highly sensitive to external stimuli such as temperature and light, errors are frequent. Bundling physical qubits to monitor and correct each other's errors in real time produces logical qubits. To prepare for such a "quantum assault," Google set a goal to transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) by 2029 just five days before publishing the paper and announced that related technologies would be included in the upcoming Android 17 release.

Some analysts point out that what truly drives the advancement of quantum computers is not quantum technology itself, but AI. Han Jongmok, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "The real fear among cryptography experts is the uncertainty that if AI revolutionizes quantum error correction models, the decades-long gap could collapse in an instant." In fact, during a public demonstration by Anthropic, Claude was able to find a vulnerability in the Linux kernel in just 90 minutes without complex tools, and it stole 4.6 million dollars from a smart contract (a self-executing program on a blockchain) in just 2 minutes and 26 seconds. AI independently discovered vulnerabilities without human assistance. Han added, "The hacking capability of AI models doubles every 1.3 months, so if AI is deployed, even the currently expected commercialization timeline of 2029 for quantum computers could be moved up."

"Proactive Response" from Ethereum vs. "Fossilized" Bitcoin

In response to the "quantum assault," Ethereum is moving quickly. The Ethereum Foundation, which supports blockchain network development, views the threat of quantum computers as an opportunity to upgrade the entire network structure. In January this year, the foundation officially designated post-quantum security as its top strategic priority and established a dedicated organization and research incentives. Specifically, it has created a five-stage post-quantum defense roadmap and is preparing to overhaul the network's backbone using a "hash function (STARKs)" method that quantum computers cannot retroactively trace.

In contrast, because Bitcoin lacks formal leadership, it is difficult to make structural changes like Ethereum. Also, PQC solutions that can block quantum computer attacks are larger in signature size than those used by Bitcoin, which puts Bitcoin at a disadvantage in terms of processing speed and transaction fees.

As a result, some believe the future of virtual assets hinges on how quickly defense frameworks can be established. Choi Yoon-young, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, said, "Quantum-related risks are moving beyond conceptual discussion and now require real-world responses. The speed and level of preparedness before technological breakthroughs at any specific point are more critical variables than the breakthroughs themselves." She added, "Going forward, the market is likely to differentiate risk premiums not based on when quantum computers appear, but on how clearly and effectively each network presents and executes its PQC transition roadmap."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.