[Bitcoin Now] "Virtual Assets Will Collapse by 2029"... Is It True?

As Google predicts that quantum computers will be able to break existing cryptographic systems by 2029, it has emerged that virtual assets based on blockchain are also at risk of being hacked. The speed at which quantum security is adopted in response to future quantum computer attacks is likely to determine the fate of virtual assets.

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On March 30, the Google Quantum Artificial Intelligence (AI) team published a paper titled "Responsibly Disclosing Quantum Vulnerabilities to Protect Cryptocurrencies." The main point is that quantum computers can decrypt ECC, the core security system for virtual assets, with far fewer resources than previously expected. ECC refers to elliptic curve cryptography, a security method based on mathematical graphs called elliptic curves. For example, when creating a Bitcoin wallet, one receives a public key (a wallet address known to everyone) and a private key (a password known only to the owner). ECC is the technology that pairs these keys and proves wallet ownership via the private key. To steal virtual assets, one would need to derive the private key from the public key. Previously, it was estimated that even a supercomputer would take 9.8 trillion years to break a single Bitcoin encryption.

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However, Google explained that the number of physical qubits required for a quantum computer to break ECC has dropped to less than 500,000, which is just 1/18th of previous estimates. In terms of logical qubits, this translates to 1,200 to 1,450. The time required for hacking is now said to be only 9 to 23 minutes. Considering that the average Bitcoin block generation time is 10 minutes, hacking could potentially outpace block creation. A qubit is a unit that allows the superposition of 0 and 1, enabling vast amounts of information to be processed in a short time. Individual quantum particles embedded in hardware devices are called physical qubits, which are prone to errors due to their sensitivity to external stimuli such as temperature and light. Logical qubits are formed by grouping physical qubits together, allowing real-time error monitoring and correction. To prepare for such 'attacks' by quantum computers, Google set its post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration goal for 2029, just five days before the publication of the paper, and plans to incorporate related technology in the upcoming Android 17.

Some analysts point out that it is not quantum mechanics itself but AI that is driving the advancement of quantum computers. Han Jongmok, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "The real fear among cryptography experts is the uncertainty that the decades-long gap could collapse instantly if AI revolutionizes quantum error correction models." In fact, during a public demonstration by Anthropic, Claude (an AI model) found a vulnerability in the Linux kernel in just 90 minutes without any complex tools and stole $4.6 million from a smart contract (a self-executing program on a blockchain) in only 2 minutes and 26 seconds. AI discovered the vulnerabilities without any human assistance. Han added, "The hacking capability of AI models is doubling every 1.3 months, so if AI is deployed, even the predicted commercialization schedule for quantum computers in 2029 could be accelerated."

In response to the 'onslaught' of quantum computers, Ethereum is moving quickly. The Ethereum Foundation, which supports the development of the blockchain network, sees the threat from quantum computers as an opportunity to upgrade the entire network structure. In January this year, the foundation officially designated post-quantum security as its top strategic task and established a dedicated organization and research incentives. Specifically, it has devised a five-stage post-quantum defense roadmap and is preparing to overhaul the network's backbone using a 'hash function (STARKs)' approach, which is completely untraceable by quantum computers.

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On the other hand, Bitcoin, which lacks official leadership, finds it difficult to decide on a structural overhaul like Ethereum. Additionally, PQC, which is designed to guard against quantum computer attacks, requires more signature space than Bitcoin currently uses, making it disadvantageous for Bitcoin in terms of processing speed and transaction fees.

Ultimately, some believe that the future of virtual assets will depend on how quickly response systems are established. Choi Yoon-young, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, said, "Quantum risk is moving beyond conceptual discussion to a stage that demands tangible responses," adding, "Rather than a breakthrough at a specific point in time, the speed and level of preparedness before that point will be even more critical variables." She further noted, "In the future, the market will likely differentiate risk premiums not by when quantum computers arrive, but by how clearly and effectively each network presents and implements its PQC migration roadmap."

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