[Weekend Money] Tesla’s ‘Earnings Surprise’ Exceeds Expectations... What Will Drive the Stock Next?

Despite concerns over a slowdown in the electric vehicle market, Tesla reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations. Analysts have indicated that the future trajectory of Tesla’s share price will largely depend on the pace at which its robotaxi and humanoid robot projects become a reality.

Seonjae Song, a research analyst at Hana Securities, stated in a recent report on Tesla, "Tesla’s share price will begin to rise in earnest when the company demonstrates progress with its robotaxi and humanoid robot expansions that match its existing plans and market expectations."

Previously, Tesla announced that first-quarter sales and operating profit reached $22.39 billion and $940 million, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 16% and 136%. First-quarter sales and production figures were 358,000 and 408,000 units, respectively. However, on the day of the earnings release, Tesla’s share price surged in after-hours trading and recovered the $400 per share level, but subsequently gave up those gains and remained under pressure.

Song commented, "The higher-than-expected gross profit margin for the first quarter, the expansion of the robotaxi sector, and improvements in FSD (Full Self-Driving) performance are all positive. However, negative factors include lower-than-expected sales volumes, a slowdown in the energy business, and delays in the public release of Optimus."

This earnings announcement also revealed that this year’s capital expenditures are expected to exceed $25 billion (approximately KRW 37 trillion), which is an upward revision from the previous estimate of $20 billion. This amount is triple last year’s capital expenditures. This move is part of Tesla’s strategy to evolve from an electric vehicle company into an AI, autonomous driving, and robotics company.

Song noted, "The robotaxi service has expanded its driverless zones in Austin, and in April, launched unmanned services in Dallas and Houston. In the same month, Tesla obtained approval to distribute FSD in the Netherlands, raising the likelihood of approval in other European Union (EU) countries. Approval procedures are also underway in China."

However, the highly anticipated Optimus 3rd generation is now expected to be released in July or August. Song emphasized, "Production of the Cybercab and the unveiling of Optimus 3.0 in the third quarter will be key variables." The 3rd generation Optimus was originally scheduled to be released in the first quarter.

Yongkwon Moon, a research analyst at Shin Young Securities, also commented, "Compared to what Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has communicated, delays in Optimus production and FSD certification are putting pressure on the company’s valuation. The pace of progress in the Optimus and robotaxi businesses in the second half of the year will determine the direction of the share price."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.