"US Recession Could Hinge on a Single Tweet," Says Goldman Sachs CEO

"Low Probability of Recession... Oil Prices Expected at $80-100 per Barrel"

David Solomon, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Goldman Sachs, warned that the risk of recession in the United States could suddenly increase depending on how the U.S. administration responds to the Iran war on social media platforms.

According to Bloomberg News on April 21 (local time), CEO Solomon said in an interview that "the risk of a recession growing or shrinking could depend on a single tweet," emphasizing the sensitivity of the current environment.

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News.

After the interview, Goldman Sachs clarified that CEO Solomon's remarks were made in jest. However, Bloomberg assessed his comments as reflecting the realities of the broader financial markets. U.S. President Donald Trump frequently shares his views on major issues through his social media platform, Truth Social, and a single post from him has been causing significant market volatility. For example, when President Trump stated that he had agreed with Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz, the stock market surged and oil prices tumbled even though there was no confirmation from Iran.

Last year, CEO Solomon angered President Trump by stating that American consumers would have to bear much of the economic shock from the Trump administration's tariffs. At that time, President Trump mocked Solomon by referencing his DJ activities, saying, "I think David should either hire a new economist or just focus on his DJ gigs and not worry about running a major financial institution."

Regarding the current outlook for a recession, CEO Solomon said the probability remains quite low. He projected a 15% chance of a recession this year in the current optimistic environment, while Goldman Sachs economists placed the probability higher at around 30%.

On the outlook for oil prices, he stated that there is a high likelihood that prices will remain in the $80 to $100 per barrel range over the next three to six months. However, he warned that if the situation deteriorates, prices could soar as high as $170 per barrel. After the Iran war, oil prices at one point spiked to $120 per barrel, but on this day, June delivery Brent crude on the London ICE Futures Exchange was trading at $99 per barrel, and June delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange was around $90 per barrel.

CEO Solomon also warned that a prolonged rise in energy prices could impact economic indicators to be released at the end of this year. He said, "If this unstable situation continues for another three to six months, it will affect the economy," and added, "This does not necessarily mean a terrible recession or severe economic turmoil is inevitable, but it will slow growth and affect Americans as well."

Meanwhile, regarding recent concerns on Wall Street about issues in the private credit market, he stated that these worries are exaggerated. He said, "The market is not large enough to pose a direct systemic risk," and explained that loans to risky borrowers account for only a very small portion of the overall credit market.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.