Market Cheers Trump's One-Month Ceasefire Proposal... KOSPI Jumps 3%

US Delivers 15 Demands to Iran

International Oil Prices Fall Below $90

Renewed Warmth Spreads to Virtual Assets and Gold

Following foreign media reports that U.S. President Donald Trump has begun ceasefire negotiations with Iran, international oil prices have returned to the 80-dollar-per-barrel range. As energy prices stabilized, warmth spread throughout asset markets, including domestic and international stock exchanges, as well as virtual assets and gold. Concerns about a protracted conflict have shifted to hopes for a truce. However, with elite U.S. airborne troops now en route to the battlefield, whether this atmosphere will continue depends on whether both sides proceed with negotiations.

On the 25th, the status board in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul displayed the KOSPI index and others. On this day, the KOSPI index opened at 5,680.33, up 126.41 points (2.28%) from the previous trading day, and the KOSDAQ opened at 1,133.31, up 11.87 points (1.06%). Yonhap News

On March 24 (local time), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for near-term delivery was trading at $87.36 per barrel as of 9:20 p.m. (Korean time, March 25 at 10:20 a.m.), down 4.97% from the previous trading day. The WTI price had surged above $93 the previous day amid fears of further escalation, but as reports emerged that the two countries are negotiating, it retraced below the $90 mark. Given that the price hovered in the $101 range two days ago at the peak of escalation fears, this represents a drop of more than 13%. Brent crude for June delivery, which is usually traded at a premium to WTI, was also trading at $94.24 per barrel.

On this day, Korea's KOSPI index opened up 2.28% at 5,680.33 and continued to rise by around 3% in morning trading. Japan's Nikkei 225 index (up 2.80%) and Australia's ASX 200 index (up 2.10%) also showed upward momentum. China's Shanghai Composite Index (up 0.37%) remained strong as well. Previously, U.S. stock markets had shown weakness during regular trading overnight, but then rebounded slightly. U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stock futures rose 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, recovering the previous day's losses.

Warmth also returned to the virtual asset market. According to global cryptocurrency tracking site CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $70,707.76 on this day, up 0.07% from 24 hours earlier. Around 2:45 a.m., Bitcoin had stayed in the $68,000 range. Gold prices, which had fallen below $4,200 on March 23, also rebounded. The spot gold price was trading at $4,573.13, up 2.18% from the previous trading day as of this writing.

Expectations of a turning point in the Iran war are spreading warmth across the markets. The New York Times (NYT) reported that the United States had delivered a 15-point plan to Iran. Israel's Channel 12 reported that the Trump administration had proposed a one-month ceasefire to Iran. U.S. online media Axios also reported that the Trump administration is exploring the possibility of high-level talks as early as March 26.

Iran's announcement that it would permit passage through the Strait of Hormuz for all but belligerent countries also appears to have contributed to the stabilization of oil prices. Iran notified International Maritime Organization (IMO) member states via letter that it would allow 'non-hostile vessels' pre-coordinated with Iranian authorities to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, President Trump had raised expectations during the negotiation process by saying that Iran had offered a "present" related to the Strait of Hormuz as a gesture of goodwill.

In addition, it is known that China has urged Iran to expedite negotiations with the United States for an end to the conflict. Wang Yi, a member of the Communist Party of China Central Politburo and Minister of Foreign Affairs, emphasized in a statement that all parties should resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation rather than the use of force, stating, "Negotiations must begin as soon as possible." China is one of the countries most dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil. As of 2024, Russia accounted for 20% of China's crude oil imports by country, the highest share, followed by Iran with 11% and Iraq (10%), Oman (7%), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE, 6%).

Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at the U.S. investment bank Piper Sandler, told CNBC, "Currently, the market is essentially being driven by a single variable—oil prices," and added, "The market will continue to react to changes." Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, also told Bloomberg, "Reports that a ceasefire on the 30th is being discussed have eased concerns about the worst-case scenarios for prices and demand. Although the details remain limited and the news is still fluid, the signal that an exit is open is lowering some of the market's risk premium."

However, some point out that the market is displaying excessive optimism regarding the Iran conflict. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer noted in Parliament this week that assuming a quick end to the conflict is "a false sense of relief." The Guardian supported Prime Minister Starmer's position in an editorial on this day, stating, "This war could be prolonged, the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is slim, and the economic risks are already becoming reality."

In particular, there is growing speculation about the possibility of U.S. ground forces being deployed. NBC reported, citing multiple sources, that President Trump had approved the deployment of more than 100 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. The actual deployment is expected to take place "within the next few days." The NYT also reported the previous day that senior U.S. military officials were considering such measures. Currently, nearly 5,000 troops from two Marine Expeditionary Units are already heading to the Middle East by ship, and in addition, an advance team from the 82nd Airborne Division is reportedly about to be deployed, with a total of 3,000 troops from the division available. The likely target for an airborne operation has been identified as Kharg Island, Iran’s key crude oil export hub.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.