'$150 Oil' Fears Spread... Two Possible Worst-Case Scenarios [US-Iran War]

If the Red Sea Is Blocked, Oil Prices Could Rise Further
Deployment of U.S. Ground Forces Could Also Drive Oil Higher

As Israel and Iran attack each other's energy facilities and retaliate, Brent crude oil has once again surpassed $110 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has also exceeded $100. The recent targeting of energy infrastructure, which had previously been spared in attacks, has heightened market anxiety. Some analysts predict that if the conflict escalates, resulting in a Red Sea blockade or the deployment of U.S. ground forces, oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel.

Yonhap News Agency

According to Investing.com, a provider of real-time international financial information, as of 10:03 a.m. on March 19, 2026 (Korea Standard Time), Brent crude oil futures for May delivery were trading at $111.35 per barrel. At the same time, the nearest-month WTI contract was at $98.34. WTI is typically traded at a slightly lower price than Brent crude.

Israel and Iran Target Energy Facilities

Brent crude oil futures spiked on news that South Pars, Iran’s largest gas field, had been attacked by the U.S. and Israel. Although the price appeared to moderate slightly, it broke through $110 again after reports that Iran had retaliated with missile strikes on Ras Laffan, a region in Qatar dense with gas facilities supplying 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Richard Bronze of energy consultancy Energy Aspects commented, “While there hasn’t been a full-scale war regarding attacks on energy infrastructure yet, Iran is increasingly targeting more sites across the Gulf countries, and this strategy could escalate to additional phases.” He also expressed concern that, as Iran’s weapons stockpiles decline, there is a greater likelihood of targeting more valuable assets.

There are also concerns that if oil fields or gas fields are struck and operations are halted for an extended period, the wells themselves could be rendered unusable. Aditya Saraswat, an analyst at Rystad Energy, explained, “If the shutdown of several projects is prolonged, it could damage the reservoirs internally,” adding, “If operations are suspended for a certain period, there may be issues that could make the wells permanently unusable.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s elite force, issued a strong warning that if Iran’s energy sector is attacked again, it will destroy the oil and gas industries of neighboring Gulf countries with U.S. interests. The IRGC stated, “Attacking the energy infrastructure of the Islamic Republic (Iran) was a grave mistake,” emphasizing, “Retaliatory measures are already underway.” The statement continued, “If such attacks are repeated, we will not stop additional strikes until the energy infrastructure is completely destroyed,” and added, “Our response will be much stronger than tonight’s attacks.”

If the Red Sea Is Blocked, Prices Could Reach $150 per Barrel

Further increases in oil prices could also arise from the Red Sea, another key energy transport route. On March 15, Iran declared that all logistics and service bases around the Red Sea supporting the U.S. aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford were legitimate targets. On March 16, the UK Maritime Trade Operations center warned that the threat level in the Red Sea was significantly elevated due to regional conflict and the risk of attacks by Houthi rebels.

David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, projected that if oil supplies through the Red Sea were completely cut off, Brent crude prices could soar to between $130 and $150 per barrel. Naveen Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler, explained that if a tanker carrying Saudi Arabian crude were attacked in the Red Sea, “it would basically signal that every oil transport route in the market is under attack,” adding, “It would mean there is no route left for safe passage.”

As Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea has emerged as an alternative transport route. Last week, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, announced it would reroute crude oil shipments—normally loaded in the Persian Gulf and transported through Hormuz—to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast. This route can handle up to 7 million barrels of crude oil per day, which can partially offset the average of 15 million barrels per day shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. According to trade data and analytics firm Kpler, the average daily oil shipments from Yanbu this month have more than doubled compared to the average daily volume last year.

If the Conflict Drags On, Economic Slowdown May Follow

The potential deployment of U.S. ground forces and a prolonged war could further drive oil prices. U.S. investment bank Wolfe Research outlined three scenarios for the conflict: best case, worst case, and base case. The worst scenario would be a protracted conflict, in which oil prices are expected to remain “well above $100 per barrel.” In this scenario, the economy would slow, and markets could enter a bearish phase, Wolfe Research’s Tobin Marcus warned.

However, this scenario is considered the least likely among the three. Instead, the likelihood that the war will conclude next month is viewed as the highest. Marcus said, “It is unlikely to drag on beyond April,” and predicted, “An unofficial ceasefire will be reached, leaving some issues unresolved.” Nevertheless, he expects oil prices to remain somewhat elevated for a while even after the war ends.

Meanwhile, in the best-case scenario, where the U.S. fully subdues Iran, oil prices are expected to stabilize, with WTI projected to fall below $80 per barrel in May and below $70 in July.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.