Climate Change to Increase 'Physical Inactivity'... Up to 700,000 Premature Deaths Possible by 2050 [Reading Science]

Decrease in Outdoor Activity Due to Rising Temperatures
Greater Impact on Low-Income and Tropical Regions

A study has found that rising temperatures due to climate change could lead to a global decrease in physical activity and cause hundreds of thousands of premature deaths.

According to research published in the international medical journal "The Lancet Global Health" on March 17, an international joint research team analyzed data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022, modeling the impact of rising temperatures on global physical activity through 2050.

Photo for understanding the article. Provided by Yonhap News Agency

The study predicted that for each additional month with an average temperature exceeding 27.8°C, the global rate of physical inactivity would increase by approximately 1.5 percentage points. The researchers estimated that this change could result in an additional 470,000 to 700,000 premature deaths worldwide each year.

The economic impact of increased physical inactivity was also anticipated. The research team analyzed that productivity losses could reach approximately 2.4 billion to 3.68 billion dollars annually.

However, the impact varied by country. In low- and middle-income countries, the rate of physical inactivity was projected to increase by about 1.85 percentage points, whereas no significant upward trend was observed in high-income countries.

The effect is expected to be particularly pronounced in regions with high temperatures, such as Central America and the Caribbean, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, and equatorial Southeast Asia. In these areas, the rate of physical inactivity could increase by more than 4 percentage points for each additional month with an average temperature above 27.8°C.

Photo to aid understanding of the article. Citizens are running at Jamsugyo Bridge in Seocho-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Kuk-Jongseong, Professor at the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Seoul National University, told the Korea Science and Technology Media Center (SMCK), "This study is significant in that it demonstrates a new pathway by which global warming can affect not only average temperature increases or more frequent extreme weather events, but also human behavior and health."

He explained, "By combining global data and climate models, we quantitatively showed that when temperature rises above a certain threshold, outdoor activity decreases and physical inactivity increases. This suggests that the impacts of climate change can lead not only to direct damages such as deaths from heatwaves or reduced labor productivity, but also to behavioral changes and an increase in chronic diseases."

However, some point out that there are limitations to this study, as it is based on monthly average temperature data. Professor Kuk added, "To analyze the effects of climate change more accurately, research using more detailed climate information is needed."

This research suggests that climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but a factor that can alter human lifestyles and health burdens, indicating the need to broaden the scope of policy responses.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.