[Breaking Interview] Ali Vaez, ICG Iran Expert: "Iran's Strategy Is to Raise the Cost of a Prolonged Standoff"

Raising U.S. Costs Through Hormuz Pressure
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Ali Baez, Senior Analyst on Iran Issues at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

"The outlook that the United States is preparing for long-term disruptions to shipping in the Gulf region is a reasonable conclusion."

Ali Vaez, Senior Analyst on Iran Issues at the International Crisis Group (ICG), stated this in a written interview with The Asia Business Daily on March 15 (local time), in response to the U.S. Secretary of Energy's recent remarks that the U.S. military could escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month.

He added, "Even from a short-term perspective, discussions about convoying ships, insurance, and the deployment of additional military force help to ease market anxiety," and commented that "this is likely part of the intention." The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s maritime oil shipments pass.

Previously, President Donald Trump urged major countries such as China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to dispatch warships to protect shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz via his social media account. In response, these five countries have reacted with significant caution.

On March 12, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in an interview with CNBC that "it will only be possible by the end of this month for the U.S. military to conduct escort operations for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz."

Senior Analyst Vaez explained, "Iran aims to demonstrate its ability to increase the economic and military costs Washington must bear in a prolonged standoff," adding, "By simultaneously pressuring maritime traffic and U.S. military installations, Iran is pursuing a strategy to increase the burden on the United States."

Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, who recently became Iran's Supreme Leader, announced a hardline response in his first official statement after his election and has since launched a series of attacks. At the time, he declared, "The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed to continue putting pressure on our enemies." He also urged Gulf region states to "close all U.S. military bases," asserting, "The U.S. claims of providing security and peace are nothing but lies."

Senior Analyst Vaez assessed that these statements are not merely rhetorical threats but reflect actions that have already partially materialized. He explained, "To some extent, the situations he mentioned are already happening." He continued, "The volume of goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed considerably, and U.S. military bases and diplomatic facilities have come under attack."

He further emphasized, "The number of transits through the strait has dropped sharply. Iran has already attacked several vessels, and by deploying drones, missiles, small reconnaissance boats, and even naval mines, it could make navigation even more dangerous."

However, he raised questions about whether Iran's strategy of blockading the Strait of Hormuz can be sustained in the long term. Senior Analyst Vaez pointed out, "If the United States and its allies increase their military actions to weaken Iran's military capabilities or expand support for shipping companies, it is unclear how long Iran can maintain a blockade."

Editor's NoteAli Vaez, Senior Analyst on Iran Issues at the International Crisis Group (ICG), is considered one of the leading experts on Iran and Middle Eastern affairs. He is currently an adjunct professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service (SFS) at Georgetown University and has served as a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Senior Analyst Vaez has previously worked as Senior Political Affairs Officer at the United Nations (UN) Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) and Project Director for Iran at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), where he analyzed Iran's nuclear and missile programs. During the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) negotiations, he played a key role in bridging gaps between Iran and the P5+1 countries (United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom, France, and Germany).

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