“Iran Faces Four Scenarios: Regime Preservation, Flight, Succession after Repression, and More” - RAND Corporation

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, in a U.S. airstrike on February 28, there has been growing interest in how Iran's power succession will unfold and whether the new Supreme Leader will be able to effectively govern the country.

The RAND Corporation, a U.S. think tank specializing in defense and administrative affairs, outlined four scenarios on its website on March 3: regime continuity, flight, succession after repression, and successful popular uprising. The organization also provided predictions for each outcome. At this moment, the situation is highly exceptional and uncertain, as the United States and Israel have signaled the possibility of continued attacks and have the capability to target Iranian regime officials, including potential successors, at any time.

Below is a summary of RAND Corporation's analysis of the four scenarios.

When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the country for a decade following the 1979 revolution, passed away, the succession process was relatively managed. However, this current succession is unfolding amid serious internal instability, economic crisis, and unprecedented external military pressure.

In particular, Iran's military vulnerabilities and susceptibility to external pressure have been highlighted. The continued possibility of intervention by the United States and Israel, along with their ability to target Iranian officials at any time, are decisive factors. At the same time, internal issues such as factional conflict and power struggles are also critical concerns in this unstable succession process.

① 'Regime Continuity' Scenario

This scenario envisions the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body responsible for selecting Iran's highest authority, approving a new high-ranking cleric as Supreme Leader and largely maintaining the existing system. At least in the short term, this would mean maintaining the current regime, which is the outcome Khamenei himself had sought. The government is currently promoting an organized, cleric-led succession process.

In this case, it is unlikely that the Assembly of Experts will accept calls for fundamental political reform, and further violence and repression in response to future protests may follow.

② 'Flight' Scenario

This scenario involves key regime figures deciding their fate is sealed and fleeing abroad, similar to Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

While this may sound appealing to those wishing for the end of the Islamic Republic, in reality, it could lead to a power vacuum and national chaos.

When the Shah (of the Pahlavi dynasty) went into exile in 1979, there were various political forces ready to step in. However, today, such forces are almost nonexistent. Therefore, the collapse of the regime does not guarantee a transition to liberalization or openness.

③ 'Succession After Repression' Scenario

In this scenario, the regime relies even more heavily on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to reestablish its authority. The legitimacy of the clerical leadership would weaken, and a system resembling a de facto military regime could emerge.

Such a system would strongly suppress internal dissent and is likely to adopt an even more hardline stance against the United States and Israel.

④ 'Successful Popular Uprising' Scenario

This scenario sees a popular uprising actually toppling the regime. However, under the current circumstances, it is uncertain whom the Iranian people would support, or whether any branch of the military or security services would side with the citizens. The population would still face remnants of power determined to maintain control.

In this case, the situation could become highly unpredictable. However, the more sustained U.S. military pressure weakens Iran's major power institutions, the greater the likelihood of this scenario.

Will the Selection of Khamenei's Second Son Lead to a 'Regime Continuity + Succession After Repression' Scenario?

Meanwhile, on March 3, the London-based dissident media outlet 'Iran International,' citing sources, reported that Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Ali Khamenei, had been chosen as the next leader. The New York Times also reported that Mojtaba Khamenei is a strong candidate for succession.

Mojtaba, 56 years old this year, is a mid-level cleric who teaches Shia theology at a seminary in Qom, Iran's religious center. Although he has never held an official government position, he is said to have wielded considerable behind-the-scenes influence. He has long been considered one of Khamenei's potential successors.

Iran International reported that the Assembly of Experts' selection of Mojtaba as successor was influenced by pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Notably, he maintains close ties with the IRGC, Iran's most powerful military organization, and its subordinate militia, the Basij.

Therefore, if Mojtaba assumes power as successor, it is likely that a combination of the 'regime continuity' and 'succession after repression' scenarios outlined by the RAND Corporation will emerge.

Yonhap News Agency

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.