"Climate Change Is Moving Faster Than Expected...Climate System Components Are Leaving Their Stable State"

Analysis by Oregon State University research team
"Departing from a stable state that persisted for thousands of years"
"Feedback loops emerging, accelerating warming"

There is a warning that the components of the Earth's climate system are moving out of a stable state and entering a period of unprecedented change.

Image to help readers understand the article.

According to Yonhap News on February 12, an international research team led by Professor William Ripple of Oregon State University in the United States reported in the scientific journal One Earth that, "Based on our reassessment of climate observation data, our evaluation of climate sensitivity and feedback strength, and our analysis of interactions among tipping elements, we conclude that the Earth's climate is departing from the stable state that has persisted for thousands of years."

The research team re-evaluated paleoclimate data such as temperature records spanning hundreds of thousands to millions of years, along with the latest observational data including the recent rate of temperature increase and carbon dioxide concentrations, climate model outputs, and previous studies on tipping elements, to analyze how close the Earth's climate system is to critical thresholds. "Tipping elements" are subsystems that can disrupt the stability of the Earth's climate once a critical temperature is exceeded. In this study, they included the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, boreal forests and permafrost, the Amazon rainforest, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

The analysis found that the increase in global average temperature has approached or exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as proposed by the Paris Agreement, for 12 consecutive months. Christopher Wolf, a co-author of the paper, explained, "It is highly likely that the current global average temperature is warmer than at any time in the past 125,000 years," adding, "Climate change is unfolding more rapidly than expected."

Image to aid understanding of the article.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now exceeds 420 ppm, about 50% higher than before the Industrial Revolution, and is likely at its highest level in the past 2 million years. The study also suggests that tipping may already be underway in the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, where critical temperatures may have been surpassed, and that boreal permafrost, mountain glaciers, and the Amazon rainforest are estimated to be on the verge of tipping.

The research team pointed out, "The rapid rise in temperature is highly likely to trigger cascading interactions among tipping elements, driving the Earth toward extreme warming and sea level rise," and added, "This may be difficult to reverse even if greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced." In other words, as the climate changes, feedback loops can emerge in which responses to those changes in turn affect the climate itself.

Professor Ripple, who led the research, said, "The melting of ice, snow, and permafrost, forest decline, and soil carbon loss can all amplify warming, and this in turn affects how sensitive the climate system is to greenhouse gases," adding, "Such amplifying feedbacks increase the risk of accelerated warming." He went on to stress, "We should take these findings as a signal that urgent climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are needed. Governments must prioritize strategies that integrate climate resilience, and the phased phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.