[Pol-Pol News] Next Year's Local Elections: How Will the Big Two Fare?... Seoul and Busan Mayoral Races Neck and Neck

Democratic Party 39.9% vs People Power Party 31.4% in Seoul
People Power Party 38.9% vs Democratic Party 34.4% in Busan
All major candidate matchups remain within the margin of error

Regarding the 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3 next year, Seoul and Busan each showed a lead for the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party, respectively, in terms of party approval ratings. However, hypothetical matchups between major candidates revealed a closely contested race.

According to a public opinion poll released by Media Tomato on the 16th, the Democratic Party of Korea in Seoul led with a 39.9% approval rating, ahead of the People Power Party (31.4%) by a margin outside the margin of error. The survey was conducted via wireless virtual number ARS from October 13 to 14 among 1,001 Seoul residents aged 18 and older, with a response rate of 5.4%, a 95% confidence level, and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. In Busan, the People Power Party recorded a 38.9% approval rating, while the Democratic Party of Korea stood at 34.4%, which falls within the margin of error. The Busan survey targeted 1,003 residents aged 18 and older from October 13 to 14, with a response rate of 6.0%, a 95% confidence level, and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

The hypothetical matchups between major candidates in Seoul were extremely close. In a contest between Prime Minister Kim Minseok and Seoul Mayor Oh Sehoon, support rates were 44.2% and 40.6%, respectively, with Prime Minister Kim holding a slight lead within the margin of error. Conversely, in a matchup between Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoonshik and Mayor Oh, support stood at 40.6% and 42.3%, respectively, with Mayor Oh slightly ahead within the margin of error. Cho Kuk, the Emergency Response Committee Chairperson of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, also showed a tight race with Mayor Oh, recording 41.7% and 43.2%, respectively.

In Busan, Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Jeon Jaesoo (40.1%) and Mayor Park Hyungjoon (39.4%) were in a competitive race within the margin of error. However, former Democratic Party lawmaker Choi Inho (28.7%) trailed Mayor Park (44.7%) by a margin exceeding the margin of error in a hypothetical contest. Similarly, Emergency Response Committee Chairperson Cho Kuk (35.2%) also lagged behind Mayor Park (44.6%) by a margin beyond the margin of error. A key variable is the relatively low public support for the re-election of both Mayor Oh and Mayor Park, at 37.2% and 36.5%, respectively.

For more details regarding the public opinion poll, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.