CNBC Expert Survey, US Recession Probability Rises from 23% to 36%

2025 GDP Forecast Drops from 2.4% to 1.7%
"Economic Risks More Serious Than a Temporary Slowdown"

According to a survey conducted by the U.S. economic media CNBC among experts, the risk of a U.S. economic recession is rising, and economic growth is expected to slow down.

On the 18th (local time), CNBC reported that a survey of 32 experts including fund managers, strategists, and analysts showed a 36% chance of a recession. This is an increase from 23% in the January survey.

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Barry Knapp, Director of Research at Ironside Macro Economics, said, "I have had many discussions with investors who are concerned that the Trump administration's policies have gone off track due to trade policy," adding, "The economic risks are growing more serious than a temporary slowdown."

John Donaldson, Head of Bonds at Harford Trust, stated, "The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented."

The average GDP growth forecast for 2025 dropped from 2.4% to 1.7%. Neil Dutta, Chief Economist at Renaissance Macro Research, said, "With the housing market freezing and state and local government spending decreasing, there is significant downside risk to the current 2025 GDP outlook."

Regarding this year’s Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate outlook, 77% of respondents said the Fed would cut rates at least twice. CNBC explained that two-thirds of respondents believe tariffs will lead to one-time price increases rather than widespread inflation explosions. However, 19% of respondents said the Fed would keep rates unchanged this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is held over two days starting today, all respondents expected a rate hold in March.

More than 70% of respondents think tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs, and growth. 34% believe tariffs reduce U.S. manufacturing, while 22% said tariffs would bring no change. 37% said tariffs lead to increased production.

Over 70% of respondents said that the federal government workforce restructuring led by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is bad for growth and jobs but may have some deflationary effects.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said, "Due to the global trade war, unplanned cuts to government jobs and budgets, aggressive immigrant deportations, and political turmoil, an economy that had been performing exceptionally well is now at risk of falling into a recession."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.