[Click eStock] "Three Billion, Overhang Issue Resolved"

On the 14th, Shinhan Investment Corp. analyzed that the overhang issue for Three Billion, a rare disease diagnosis company based on genome analysis, has been resolved. They also forecasted achieving quarterly operating profit between 2026 and 2027.

In an NR (Not Rated) report without a target price, Shinhan Investment Corp. stated, "Since the listing last November, the lock-up (mandatory protection) shares of 30% for 1 month and 25% for 2 months have mostly been exhausted after the sales restrictions were lifted," adding, "Except for some investors holding long-term positions, the overhang issue (a situation where a large potential sell volume exists in the market) has been resolved."

Three Billion, founded in 2016, is a rare disease diagnosis company applying artificial intelligence to analyze 3 billion genomes. As of last year, overseas sales accounted for 70%, providing rare disease diagnosis services in about 70 countries.

Researcher Heo Seong-gyu said, "Last year's performance slightly exceeded the estimates in the securities registration statement, and with a repurchase rate of 80%, customers tend to make repeated purchases for multiple patients once they buy," adding, "Monthly sales are expected to steadily increase." This year's estimated sales are 9.1 billion KRW based on the securities registration statement, a 57.5% increase compared to last year.

The key is the U.S. market. Researcher Heo noted, "The U.S. market is still in the process of obtaining certification and discussing with partners," and analyzed, "Considering that the average selling price (ASP) of North America's leading company GeneDx is 2,500 USD, Three Billion's price of 990 USD is expected to be competitive when entering the U.S. market."

GeneDx achieved its first quarterly breakeven point in Q4 last year, resulting in a stock price increase of about 90%. Shinhan Investment Corp. estimates that Three Billion's annual breakeven sales, considering operating expenses, are about 18 billion KRW, and expects the company to achieve its first quarterly operating profit between 2026 and 2027.

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