KOSPI Racing Toward Revived Blue-Chip Stocks, 3000 Forecast Within the Year

KOSPI Recovers 2600 Level in Three and a Half Months
Driven by Strong Earnings and Easing Tariff Concerns
Samsung Electronics Rises 12% This Month, Leading KOSPI Rebound
Forecasts Suggest KOSPI Could Recover 3000 Within the Year

The KOSPI has risen for seven consecutive days, approaching the 2700 level. The recovery of the leading stock, Samsung Electronics, is driving the stock price rebound. Securities firms predict that the KOSPI could recover to the 3000 level within the year.

Yonhap News

As of 9:15 a.m. on the 20th, the KOSPI is at 2665.44, down 6.08 points (0.23%) from the previous day. The KOSDAQ is up 2.63 points (0.34%) at 780.90. The KOSPI is slightly down due to profit-taking following consecutive recent gains.

Until the previous day, the KOSPI had risen for seven consecutive days, recovering the 2600 level for the first time in three and a half months and climbing to the 2670 level. Earnings and easing tariff risks are cited as the driving forces behind the rise. Labor Gil, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "The KOSPI has maintained a pleasant rebound since the beginning of the year, driven by better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings announcements and the easing of universal tariff risks. From a supply-demand perspective, increased corporate share buybacks have helped fill the gap left by foreign investors."

About 90% of companies have reported their fourth-quarter earnings so far, with results considered better than expected. Researcher Labor said, "The combined net income of the KOSPI companies is 22.1 trillion won, which is 30.2% below the expected 31.6 trillion won. However, it should be noted that the fourth quarter is always weak due to big bath (one-time loss recognition) and overseas asset valuation losses. The figure slightly exceeds the average fourth-quarter achievement rate of -36.2%, indicating better-than-feared results."

The strong stock prices of semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which hold a significant weight in the domestic stock market, have driven the KOSPI rebound. Samsung Electronics rose more than 3% the previous day, recovering the 58,000 won level. This is the first time Samsung Electronics has closed above 58,000 won since November 26 of last year. Samsung Electronics’ share buyback cancellation and the passage of the K-Chips Act acted as positive factors. Samsung Electronics has risen 12% this month alone, raising expectations for the '60,000 won Samsung Electronics.' Lee Seong-hoon, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "It is important to note that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the leading stocks in the domestic market, are showing strength thanks to multiple positive factors such as China's subsidy policy for iguhwanshin (replacement of old with new), expectations for an early rebound in DRAM and NAND markets, and the passage of the K-Chips Act by the National Assembly’s Planning and Finance Committee. If the rebound expectations for legacy (general-purpose) semiconductors continue to be reflected, not just the existing AI-driven narrative, foreign inflows into the domestic market, which have not been sustained since the beginning of the year, could increase significantly."

Although short-term profit-taking may occur, sector rotation is expected to continue. Researcher Lee said, "The domestic stock market may see some profit-taking in certain rapidly rising stocks due to fatigue after breaking the 200-day moving average in a short period. However, supported by improved liquidity conditions, the sector rotation trend is expected to continue."

The supply-demand environment in the domestic stock market is also improving. The average daily trading value in the domestic stock market this month is 21.5526 trillion won, marking the first time since June last year that the average daily trading value has exceeded 21 trillion won. The KOSPI’s average daily trading value, which had remained in the single digits since October last year, has risen to the 12 trillion won level this month, and the KOSDAQ, which was in the 6 trillion won range since September last year, has increased to the 9 trillion won range. Researcher Lee analyzed, "The combined credit balance of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ has increased by 1.8 trillion won since the beginning of the year to 17.5 trillion won, indicating a generally favorable liquidity environment in the stock market. Along with this liquidity improvement, institutional investors are leading supply-demand, frequently causing sector rotation and resulting in additional upward momentum."

There are also forecasts that the KOSPI will recover to the 3000 level within the year. Hanwha Investment & Securities raised its KOSPI target for this year from 2800 to 3000. Kim Su-yeon, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, said, "The possibility of the KOSPI recovering to 3000 for the first time in over three years since 2021 has increased. The industries leading the current price rise, such as industrials and IT, have solid earnings and are also sectors that hedge against inflation. Their stock prices have risen following earnings, so valuation pressure is not yet significant." She added, "Looking at the market as a whole, the KOSPI’s price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is around 9 times, which is the bottom, and based on this year’s expected earnings, it is 10.1 times, indicating that valuations are just starting to rise from the bottom. With liquidity also improving, it is necessary to increase stock exposure, focusing on cyclical stocks."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.