Victor Cha: "Trump Focused on US Primacy Over North Korea Denuclearization"

"Trump May Resume North Korea-U.S. Talks...
Likely to Differ from First Term"

The Donald Trump administration in the United States advocates for "Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization (CVID)" regarding the North Korean nuclear issue, but experts have observed that in reality, negotiations may focus on neutralizing threats to the U.S. mainland such as nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in line with America First policy.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made this prediction on the 18th (local time) at a CSIS seminar held in Washington DC on the theme of "America's Allies and Partners under the Trump Administration."

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Yonhap News Agency

Chair Cha said, "Despite the failure to reach an agreement during the first term of the Trump administration, I believe there is a possibility that President Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un will engage again," adding, "The interesting point is that the framework for engagement between North Korea and the U.S. could be formed in a very different way than during the first term."

Chair Cha noted that such signals are emerging from the Trump administration, stating, "Rhetorically, the Trump administration still talks about CVID, but substantively, the negotiation terms could be completely different from those in the first term."

However, Chair Cha raised doubts about whether President Trump will maintain the existing policy of denuclearization during negotiations. He projected, "They may apply the America First strategy to North Korea, focusing on neutralizing the nuclear weapons threat and the ICBM threat."

He continued, "In the context of the Ukraine war, President Trump may want to engage North Korea not to dismantle all nuclear weapons it possesses, but to prevent North Korea from dispatching troops for Russia and to stop the supply of military equipment."

Chair Cha referred to the recent remarks by Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, in a Washington Post (WP) interview, where Lee expressed support for President Trump's efforts to resume North Korea-U.S. talks and said he would consider nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. He pointed out that this also connects to the possibility of North Korea-U.S. dialogue occurring in a different context than before.

President Trump has repeatedly expressed his intention to contact Chairman Kim and establish a bilateral relationship through interviews and press conferences. However, the Trump administration recently included the goal of North Korea's complete denuclearization or CVID in joint statements from the U.S.-Japan summit, the trilateral foreign ministers' joint statement of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, and the Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers' joint statement.

Meanwhile, Chair Cha diagnosed South Korea's political situation as "a child pressing their face against the window outside a candy store, watching others play but unable to join." This is because, unlike countries such as Japan and India that hold summits with President Trump daily, South Korea is facing difficulties in communication due to domestic political turmoil.

As challenges South Korea faces under a second Trump administration, he cited tariffs, the presence of U.S. troops in South Korea, and the suspension of dialogue with North Korea. As opportunities, he suggested economic security, revitalization of the civilian nuclear industry, and industrial cooperation in shipbuilding and other sectors.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.