"If Private Education Costs Rise, Families Avoid Having Second or Third Child... Increase in Repeat Students Also Affects Birth Rate"

Professor Kim Taehoon Studies Private Education Spending and Fertility Rates
Greater Negative Impact on Second and Subsequent Births Than First
Increase in College Entrance Exam Retakers Also Has Negative Effect

A study has found that a 1% increase in private education expenses per student leads to a maximum 0.26% decrease in the total fertility rate. The increase in private education expenses was shown to have a more negative impact on the birth of second and subsequent children.

According to the Statistics Korea survey on private education expenses for elementary, middle, and high school students, 79% of domestic students in 2023 participated in private education. Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

On the 5th, Kim Tae-hoon, associate professor of economics at Kyung Hee University, presented research results on "The Impact of Increased Private Education Expenses on Fertility Rates" at the 37th Population Forum hosted by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and Seoul National University. Analyzing data on private education and births from 2009 to 2023, the study found that when the average monthly private education expense per student increases by 1%, the total fertility rate decreases by approximately 0.192 to 0.262% the following year.

Professor Kim stated, "In particular, the increase in private education expenses had a much larger negative effect on the birth of second and third or more children." When private education expenses increase by 1%, the total fertility rate for first children decreases by 0.068 to 0.175%, while for second and third or more children, it decreases by 0.303 to 0.451% and 0.522 to 0.809%, respectively. This means that the burden of private education expenses has a more negative impact on multi-child births.

There are also concerns that the recent increase in students retaking college entrance exams could negatively affect future fertility rates. Professor Kim pointed out, "With many young people delaying their entry into society due to retaking exams, astronomical production losses and social costs may occur," adding, "As retakers produce more retakers, delayed entry into the labor market and marriage could negatively impact future fertility rates."

Regarding measures for private education expenses, Professor Kim suggested, "There are claims that strengthening public education is necessary to solve the private education problem, but since the essence of entrance exam private education is to score even one point higher than others, I am skeptical of such claims." He proposed, "At least for elementary and middle school students, it is necessary to strengthen regulations on late-night tutoring and actively discuss holiday rest systems."

Meanwhile, according to the Statistics Korea survey on private education expenses for elementary, middle, and high school students, 79% of domestic students participated in private education in 2023. The total private education expenses for these students reached 27.1144 trillion won. This is an increase of about 50% from approximately 18 trillion won in 2015 over eight years. During the same period, the number of elementary, middle, and high school students decreased by about 15%, from 6.09 million to 5.21 million. Despite the continuous decline in the number of students, the private education market size continues to grow.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.